---
title: "Fever knives case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fever knives ($259.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 66.95% from 24 items with odds, observed 69.89% over 852 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fever knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fever knives

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=all)

Price · $259.00

Advertised RTP · 66.95% · EV $173.41 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 69.89% · 852 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 65 openings · below min

7 days · 68.56% ±3.26 587 openings

30 days · 69.89% ±2.70 852 openings

since tracking started · 69.89% ±2.70 852 openings

62.5% 72.5% 82.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=24h) | 65 | 72.54% ±9.49 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=7d) | 587 | 68.56% ±3.26 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives) | 852 | 69.89% ±2.70 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feverknives?window=all) | 852 | 69.89% ±2.70 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 852 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $520 | 10.0% | 26 | 28.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $348 | 10.2% | 39 | 43.5 | 0.90× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $319 | 9.9% | 37 | 45.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $277 | 9.0% | 43 | 48.2 | 0.89× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $208 | 6.8% | 41 | 48.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $182 | 5.8% | 34 | 46.8 | 0.73× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $179 | 5.6% | 38 | 46.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $174 | 5.4% | 46 | 46.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $166 | 5.1% | 33 | 45.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $165 | 5.0% | 44 | 45.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $160 | 4.8% | 46 | 44.3 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $121 | 3.1% | 31 | 37.6 | 0.82× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $116 | 2.9% | 22 | 36.5 | 0.60× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $114 | 2.8% | 26 | 36.1 | 0.72× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $103 | 2.3% | 31 | 33.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $98.12 | 2.1% | 20 | 32.3 | 0.62× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $98.08 | 2.1% | 31 | 32.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $95.83 | 2.1% | 26 | 31.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $64.36 | 1.0% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $62.29 | 0.9% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $59.31 | 0.8% | 14 | 20.9 | 0.67× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $58.76 | 0.8% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $56.03 | 0.8% | 15 | 19.8 | 0.76× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $51.33 | 0.6% | 21 | 18.3 | 1.15× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $570 2.20x 2026-11-03 06:46 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $570 2.20x 2026-11-03 06:33 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 01:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 03:27 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 03:18 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 03:16 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 02:36 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $568 2.19x 2026-11-07 02:30 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $565 2.18x 2026-11-06 01:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $565 2.18x 2026-11-06 00:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=feverknives)

[★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $58.21 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $173 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $121 0.47x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $320 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $173 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $353 1.36x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $108 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $524 2.02x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $179 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $259 $160 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $259 | 66.95% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $259 | 66.78% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $259 | 66.63% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $259 | 66.61% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $259 | 66.87% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $259 | 67.16% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $259 | 67.17% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $259 | 67.15% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $259 | 67.21% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $259 | 67.27% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $259 | 67.62% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $259 | 67.61% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $259 | 67.62% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $259 | 67.63% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $259 | 67.58% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $259 | 67.69% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $259 | 68.00% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $259 | 68.00% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $259 | 67.92% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $259 | 67.73% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $259 | 67.72% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $259 | 67.73% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 20.5% gold 26.7% legendary 5.7% rare 27.2% epic 5.3% Immortal 3.8% sunny 3.7% #ffd700 4.7% Covert 2.4% best hit $570 (2.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 67.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.95 on average: an expected loss of $33.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt