---
title: "Fiery heart case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fiery heart ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.24% from 44 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fiery heart](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fiery heart

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 76.24% · EV $5.18 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fieryheart?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 178,432 | $460 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109,926 | $243 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 81,138 | $200 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 76,119 | $193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,629 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,855 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 25,771 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,571 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 19,615 | $108 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,432 | $99.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13,276 | $94.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,262 | $91.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 9,853 | $84.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,924 | $78.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 4,299 | $63.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 3,751 | $60.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,989 | $55.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 2,932 | $55.53 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 1,367 | $42.72 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,105 | $39.70 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,060 | $39.13 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 745 | $34.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 585 | $31.82 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 522 | $30.59 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 505 | $30.24 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $24.08 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $17.14 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.53 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $12.28 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $11.56 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $10.80 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $10.72 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $9.13 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $6.45 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.81 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.21 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.71 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.39 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.00 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.95 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.26 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.69 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $1.21 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fieryheart)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.24% | 44 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 44 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.13% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.50% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.57% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.93% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.06% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.44% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.31% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.2% covert 0.6% classified 22.8% Ancient 0.2% red 0.2% pink 21.5% #d32ee6 11.0% restricted 35.0% Legendary 8.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.24 on average: an expected loss of $23.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt