---
title: "Flying dutchman case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Flying dutchman ($2.19) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.27% from 45 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Flying dutchman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Flying dutchman

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=all)

Price · $2.19

Advertised RTP · 75.27% · EV $1.65 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/flyingdutchman?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,695 | $807 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180,643 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 165,282 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129,421 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 120,884 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 110,175 | $99.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 100,586 | $93.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,450 | $93.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 70,452 | $75.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 61,314 | $70.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56,148 | $67.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42,547 | $60.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 40,655 | $58.87 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,046 | $58.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 23,355 | $47.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 19,524 | $44.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,002 | $41.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 11,685 | $36.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,898 | $31.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 7,887 | $31.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 900 | $15.09 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 459 | $11.92 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 453 | $11.87 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 258 | $9.71 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $7.84 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $6.44 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $5.37 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $5.19 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $4.56 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.15 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.85 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.88 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.20 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.19 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.14 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.02 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.87 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.76 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.73 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.58 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.52 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.40 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.37 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.34 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=flyingdutchman)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.19 | 75.27% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 75.05% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 74.89% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 74.91% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 75.22% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 75.55% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 75.54% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 75.51% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 75.58% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 75.61% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 76.07% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 76.03% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 75.99% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 76.03% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 76.05% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 76.05% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 76.07% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 76.01% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 76.04% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 76.06% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 76.07% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 75.97% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 76.06% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 76.46% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 76.47% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 76.39% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 76.07% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 76.14% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 76.13% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 76.22% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 5.7% covert 0.0% red 0.0% sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% Ancient 0.0% #d32ee6 1.4% Legendary 4.9% Mythical 10.2% restricted 31.2% #8847ff 12.2% mil spec 7.9% #4b69ff 11.0% violet 10.0% Restricted 5.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.27 on average: an expected loss of $24.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt