---
title: "Fogoleo case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fogoleo ($5.59) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.61% from 42 items with odds, observed 82.42% over 1,003 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fogoleo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fogoleo

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=all)

Price · $5.59

Advertised RTP · 76.61% · EV $4.28 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.42% · 1,003 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81 openings · below min

7 days · 83.28% ±6.83 712 openings

30 days · 82.42% ±5.78 1,003 openings

since tracking started · 82.42% ±5.78 1,003 openings

67.5% 88.3% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=24h) | 81 | 88.15% ±20.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=7d) | 712 | 83.28% ±6.83 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo) | 1,003 | 82.42% ±5.78 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fogoleo?window=all) | 1,003 | 82.42% ±5.78 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,006 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 191,854 | $563 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145,883 | $273 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 122,724 | $229 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108,418 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79,374 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34,083 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 33,946 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32,299 | $113 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 29,917 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 28,721 | $108 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 25,942 | $104 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 24,245 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 18,975 | $92.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 10,962 | $75.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 9,577 | $72.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,543 | $66.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 4,964 | $57.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,813 | $56.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 4,733 | $56.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 3,925 | $53.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,404 | $44.84 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 957 | $32.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 933 | $32.43 | 0.8% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.71× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 798 | $30.73 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 395 | $24.07 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.78× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $16.07 | 2.9% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $15.46 | 3.1% | 13 | 8.7 | 1.49× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $15.41 | 3.2% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $12.50 | 4.4% | 3 | 15.2 | 0.20× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $12.23 | 4.6% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $11.22 | 5.2% | 31 | 19.9 | 1.56× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $9.52 | 6.5% | 38 | 29.3 | 1.30× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $8.90 | 7.0% | 41 | 34.0 | 1.20× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $6.49 | 9.5% | 57 | 62.9 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.13 | 10.6% | 108 | 89.0 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $3.72 | 10.3% | 11 | 119.8 | 0.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 13.2% | $2.74 | 8.4% | 109 | 132.5 | 0.82× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 13.2% | $2.58 | 7.9% | 52 | 132.7 | 0.39× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 11.8% | $1.72 | 4.7% | 34 | 118.5 | 0.29× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.22 | 2.7% | 94 | 95.7 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.91 | 1.6% | 50 | 76.1 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.35 | 0.3% | 24 | 31.0 | 0.77× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fogoleo)

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $5.59 $1.22 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [乂 N I S M O 乂](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E4%B9%82%20N%20I%20S%20M%20O%20%E4%B9%82) $5.59 $6.48 1.16x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.59 $2.68 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.59 $0.91 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.59 $11.45 2.05x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $5.59 $2.68 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.59 $1.22 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/99) $5.59 $2.68 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [XXXTILTACION](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/XXXTILTACION) $5.59 $5.30 0.95x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) [Skala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Skala) $5.59 $1.22 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.59 | 76.61% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.48% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.45% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.73% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.59 | 77.07% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.07% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.03% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.11% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.21% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.59 | 77.59% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.59 | 77.58% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.59 | 77.57% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.62% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.58% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.56% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.60% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.62% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.54% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.68% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.59 | 78.03% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.59 | 78.03% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.90% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.64% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.69% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.71% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.59 | 77.72% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $5.59 | 77.66% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% covert 0.2% classified 19.4% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 41.6% Ancient 0.1% red 0.1% mil spec 14.0% pink 2.0% #d32ee6 11.9% violet 10.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.61 on average: an expected loss of $23.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt