--- title: "Fortnite case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fortnite ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.71% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.56% over 32.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fortnite](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fortnite A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=all) Price · $0.13 Advertised RTP · 73.71% · EV $0.10 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.56% · 32.2K openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.02% ±4.54 2,443 openings 7 days · 93.55% ±1.47 23.1K openings 30 days · 93.56% ±1.25 32.2K openings since tracking started · 93.56% ±1.25 32.2K openings 73.0% 89.0% 105.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.31% – 94.81%, 32,168 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=24h) | 2,443 | 100.02% ±4.54 | +11.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=7d) | 23.1K | 93.55% ±1.47 | +25.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite) | 32.2K | 93.56% ±1.25 | +29.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fortnite?window=all) | 32.2K | 93.56% ±1.25 | +29.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $2.34 | 7.4% | 257 | 97.4 | 2.64× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $1.14 | 3.8% | 242 | 103.0 | 2.35× | | [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $0.82 | 3.0% | 238 | 113.8 | 2.09× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $0.38 | 3.1% | 514 | 251.4 | 2.04× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.20 | 6.4% | 1,585 | 1001.3 | 1.58× | | [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.15 | 9.1% | 1,486 | 1914.6 | 0.78× | | [P90 \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.14 | 9.6% | 3,192 | 2167.5 | 1.47× | | [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 11.5% | $0.10 | 11.9% | 3,031 | 3708.7 | 0.82× | | [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) | 16.2% | $0.07 | 12.4% | 2,700 | 5231.7 | 0.52× | | [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 16.4% | $0.07 | 12.3% | 289 | 5278.4 | 0.05× | | [MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.05 | 10.7% | 10,374 | 6137.0 | 1.69× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 19.3% | $0.05 | 10.3% | 0 | 6209.3 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fortnite) [Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.09 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.19 1.45x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.09 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.07 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.11 0.85x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.07 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.11 0.86x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.07 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.07 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) [Vam Pizda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vam%20Pizda) $0.13 $0.11 0.85x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.13 | 73.71% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 73.61% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.55% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.48% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.72% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 74.16% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.04% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.08% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 73.97% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.02% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 74.39% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 74.53% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.70% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.71% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.80% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.65% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.71% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.67% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.47% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.60% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 74.90% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 75.13% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.96% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.56% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.77% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.74% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 74.59% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mythical 0.3% restricted 0.7% #8847ff 0.8% blue 19.3% milspec 41.4% Rare 18.2% Uncommon 19.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.71 on average: an expected loss of $26.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt