---
title: "Forza Horizon 6 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Forza Horizon 6 ($0.48) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.01% from 31 items with odds, observed 83.63% over 1,073 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Forza Horizon 6](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Forza Horizon 6

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=all)

Price · $0.48

Advertised RTP · 80.01% · EV $0.38 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.63% · 1,073 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 82.18% ±5.32 787 openings

30 days · 83.63% ±4.59 1,073 openings

since tracking started · 83.63% ±4.59 1,073 openings

52.0% 72.8% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=24h) | 57 | 72.59% ±20.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=7d) | 787 | 82.18% ±5.32 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6) | 1,073 | 83.63% ±4.59 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/forzahorizon6?window=all) | 1,073 | 83.63% ±4.59 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,075 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 9,783 | $16.59 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 9,752 | $15.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 9,430 | $11.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,000 | $9.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 8,565 | $8.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 6,808 | $5.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 6,509 | $5.72 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 5,820 | $5.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 2,933 | $3.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,159 | $2.34 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,161 | $2.34 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 724 | $1.96 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 578 | $1.80 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $1.19 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $1.10 | 1.9% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $1.05 | 2.1% | 12 | 8.1 | 1.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $0.92 | 2.5% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.40× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.78 | 3.3% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.68 | 4.0% | 45 | 24.2 | 1.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.55 | 5.3% | 39 | 39.5 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.51 | 5.6% | 72 | 45.1 | 1.60× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.45 | 6.3% | 12 | 58.2 | 0.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.44 | 6.3% | 30 | 59.7 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.41 | 6.6% | 74 | 65.6 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.39 | 6.9% | 84 | 73.3 | 1.15× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.36 | 7.1% | 115 | 81.3 | 1.41× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) | 10.1% | $0.28 | 7.2% | 67 | 108.5 | 0.62× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.27 | 7.2% | 74 | 109.2 | 0.68× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.26 | 7.1% | 29 | 113.9 | 0.25× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $0.25 | 7.0% | 168 | 116.7 | 1.44× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.22 | 6.7% | 70 | 123.2 | 0.57× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=forzahorizon6)

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.48 $0.26 0.54x 2026-11-11 20:09 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.48 $0.26 0.54x 2026-11-11 20:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.48 $0.40 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:09 UTC

[MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.48 $0.39 0.80x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.48 $0.25 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Skala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Skala) $0.48 $0.25 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) [MAYO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MAYO) $0.48 $0.39 0.81x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-field-tested) [uJMATi SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/uJMATi%20SKINS) $0.48 $0.22 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) [uJMATi SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/uJMATi%20SKINS) $0.48 $0.39 0.81x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) [uJMATi SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/uJMATi%20SKINS) $0.48 $0.26 0.54x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.48 | 80.01% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.48 | 79.80% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.48 | 79.60% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.48 | 79.63% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.48 | 79.97% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.48 | 80.31% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.48 | 80.35% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.48 | 80.29% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.48 | 80.37% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.48 | 80.36% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.48 | 80.83% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.48 | 80.80% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.48 | 80.82% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.48 | 80.79% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.48 | 80.89% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.48 | 80.79% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.85% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.79% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.78% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.76% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.82% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 80.78% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.48 | 80.87% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.48 | 81.26% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.48 | 81.25% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.48 | 81.15% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.48 | 80.88% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.48 | 80.82% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.48 | 80.91% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.48 | 80.92% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Mythical 2.6% Rare 11.6% restricted 16.3% #8847ff 19.8% violet 7.7% common 5.4% #4b69ff 15.7% mil spec 20.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.01 on average: an expected loss of $19.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt