---
title: "Fracture Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fracture Case ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.65% from 10 items with odds, observed 77.20% over 1,317 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fracture Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fracture Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.65% · EV $0.51 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.20% · 1,317 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 43.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63.72% ±22.33 122 openings

7 days · 76.92% ±7.93 1,084 openings

30 days · 77.20% ±7.15 1,317 openings

since tracking started · 77.20% ±7.15 1,317 openings

40.5% 63.5% 86.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=24h) | 122 | 63.72% ±22.3 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=7d) | 1,084 | 76.92% ±7.93 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase) | 1,317 | 77.20% ±7.15 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fracturecase?window=all) | 1,317 | 77.20% ±7.15 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,318 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,039 | $41.54 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,175 | $32.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $3.53 | 10.3% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $3.53 | 10.3% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $3.46 | 10.6% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 19.2% | $0.36 | 13.7% | 250 | 253.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 19.2% | $0.36 | 13.6% | 200 | 253.3 | 0.79× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 19.1% | $0.36 | 13.5% | 129 | 252.1 | 0.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.35 | 13.3% | 251 | 250.8 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 18.9% | $0.35 | 13.0% | 245 | 248.6 | 0.99× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fracturecase)

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [toyota](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/toyota) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [1shot ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/1shot%20%E2%99%9B) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.36 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.65% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.35% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.74% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.11% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.09% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.14% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.23% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.56% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.67% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.70% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.02% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 77.05% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.93% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.77% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 4.5% violet 38.1% Mythical 19.2% #8847ff 38.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.65 on average: an expected loss of $24.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt