---
title: "Galil AR case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Galil AR ($1.89) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.92% from 27 items with odds, observed 68.24% over 226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Galil AR](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Galil AR

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=all)

Price · $1.89

Advertised RTP · 73.92% · EV $1.40 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.24% · 226 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 69.12% ±9.22 187 openings

30 days · 68.24% ±8.48 226 openings

since tracking started · 68.24% ±8.48 226 openings

41.0% 64.3% 87.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=24h) | 27 | 64.20% ±22.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=7d) | 187 | 69.12% ±9.22 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar) | 226 | 68.24% ±8.48 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/galilar?window=all) | 226 | 68.24% ±8.48 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 165,866 | $104 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 128,179 | $74.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 100,953 | $61.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 54,187 | $44.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 40,929 | $39.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 9,952 | $22.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 6,617 | $19.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,559 | $19.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 3,133 | $15.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 2,981 | $15.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 1,456 | $11.80 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 635 | $8.86 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 390 | $7.48 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 251 | $6.40 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $4.49 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Galil AR \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.40 | 3.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $3.40 | 5.1% | 9 | 4.7 | 1.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.88 | 8.9% | 3 | 15.0 | 0.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.65 | 9.4% | 10 | 17.9 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.62 | 9.3% | 23 | 18.2 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.61 | 9.4% | 0 | 18.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.48 | 9.4% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 10.3% | $1.25 | 9.2% | 33 | 23.2 | 1.42× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 11.1% | $1.07 | 8.5% | 17 | 25.1 | 0.68× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) | 11.6% | $0.85 | 7.0% | 55 | 26.1 | 2.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.69 | 5.5% | 20 | 25.3 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) | 11.0% | $0.65 | 5.1% | 11 | 24.9 | 0.44× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=galilar)

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [Комару](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83) $1.89 $1.88 0.99x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) [Комару](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83) $1.89 $1.63 0.86x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) [Комару](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83) $1.89 $0.65 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) [Комару](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83) $1.89 $0.65 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) [Комару](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83) $1.89 $1.07 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:48 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [santi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/santi) $1.89 $1.88 0.99x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) [santi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/santi) $1.89 $1.25 0.66x 2026-11-11 09:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [santi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/santi) $1.89 $1.88 0.99x 2026-11-11 09:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) [santi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/santi) $1.89 $1.63 0.86x 2026-11-11 09:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $1.89 $1.07 0.57x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.89 | 73.92% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.89 | 73.78% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.89 | 73.74% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.89 | 73.99% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.89 | 74.28% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.89 | 74.24% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.89 | 74.19% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.89 | 74.42% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.89 | 74.44% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.89 | 74.86% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.89 | 74.82% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.89 | 74.83% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.89 | 74.80% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.89 | 74.86% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.89 | 74.87% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.84% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.88% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.85% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.84% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.93% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 74.81% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.89 | 74.86% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.89 | 75.13% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.89 | 75.27% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.89 | 75.11% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.89 | 74.86% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.89 | 74.90% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.89 | 74.95% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.89 | 74.99% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.89 | 74.91% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% mil spec 28.1% violet 18.2% classified 0.1% restricted 10.3% industrial 0.3% Rare 1.2% #4b69ff 11.4% Common 9.2% Legendary 2.1% #8847ff 8.0% milspec 11.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.92 on average: an expected loss of $26.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt