---
title: "Gallery Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gallery Case ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.69% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.58% over 464 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Gallery Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Gallery Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=all)

Price · $2.09

Advertised RTP · 73.69% · EV $1.54 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.58% · 464 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 48 openings · below min

7 days · 91.51% ±10.45 436 openings

30 days · 89.58% ±10.14 464 openings

since tracking started · 89.58% ±10.14 464 openings

48.0% 79.0% 110.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.44% – 99.71%, 464 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=24h) | 48 | 78.97% ±30.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=7d) | 436 | 91.51% ±10.5 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase) | 464 | 89.58% ±10.1 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gallerycase?window=all) | 464 | 89.58% ±10.1 | +2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 464 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,650 | $153 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 3,875 | $43.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,774 | $30.13 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.45 | 18.8% | 27 | 24.6 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.17 | 25.1% | 45 | 43.1 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 22.3% | $1.04 | 15.0% | 97 | 103.4 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 22.2% | $1.03 | 14.8% | 102 | 102.9 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 20.5% | $0.89 | 11.9% | 106 | 95.3 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 20.3% | $0.87 | 11.5% | 85 | 94.2 | 0.90× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) [.W.W.W.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/.W.W.W.) $2.09 $153 73.39x 2026-11-08 11:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=gallerycase)

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $2.09 $1.03 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $2.09 $1.04 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $2.09 $1.03 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [homosexuality](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/homosexuality) $2.09 $0.87 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [???](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%3F%3F%3F) $2.09 $0.89 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [rybel1990@@](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rybel1990%40%40) $2.09 $1.03 0.49x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.09 $1.03 0.49x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $2.09 $0.88 0.42x 2026-11-11 06:15 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $2.09 $0.88 0.42x 2026-11-11 06:15 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) [ROLTON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ROLTON) $2.09 $1.03 0.49x 2026-11-11 05:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 73.69% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.62% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.60% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.82% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 74.23% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.19% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.21% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.29% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.33% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 74.79% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.71% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.65% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.62% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.66% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.65% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.66% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.68% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 75.01% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 75.04% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.98% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.84% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.78% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.1% rare 5.3% #d32ce6 9.3% violet 42.8% restricted 22.2% #8847ff 20.3% best hit $153 (73.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.69 on average: an expected loss of $26.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt