---
title: "Gamma Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gamma Case ($1.29) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.56% from 17 items with odds, observed 76.86% over 586 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Gamma Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Gamma Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=all)

Price · $1.29

Advertised RTP · 71.56% · EV $0.92 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.86% · 586 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 46 openings · below min

7 days · 77.62% ±17.77 495 openings

30 days · 76.86% ±16.31 586 openings

since tracking started · 76.86% ±16.31 586 openings

10.0% 69.3% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=24h) | 46 | 69.14% ±58.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=7d) | 495 | 77.62% ±17.8 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma) | 586 | 76.86% ±16.3 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gamma?window=all) | 586 | 76.86% ±16.3 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 586 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,984 | $147 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 9,978 | $133 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 9,958 | $107 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,941 | $95.42 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 9,875 | $74.13 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 9,586 | $49.26 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 2,470 | $11.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 2,331 | $11.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,312 | $11.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.11 | 8.6% | 29 | 22.2 | 1.31× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.69 | 11.2% | 28 | 35.9 | 0.78× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 10.4% | $1.25 | 14.1% | 62 | 60.8 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 11.9% | $1.14 | 14.7% | 97 | 69.6 | 1.39× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 12.5% | $1.10 | 14.8% | 83 | 73.0 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 18.8% | $0.53 | 10.8% | 32 | 110.1 | 0.29× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 18.2% | $0.45 | 8.9% | 78 | 106.9 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 18.2% | $0.44 | 8.7% | 45 | 106.4 | 0.42× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=gamma)

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $1.29 $0.45 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $1.29 $0.53 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $1.29 $1.10 0.85x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $1.29 $0.53 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) [Boris\_Britva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boris_Britva) $1.29 $1.25 0.97x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [𝖂𝖎𝖅𝖎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%82%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%85%F0%9D%96%8E) $1.29 $1.14 0.88x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[MAC-10 | Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) [𝖂𝖎𝖅𝖎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%82%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%85%F0%9D%96%8E) $1.29 $0.44 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [𝖂𝖎𝖅𝖎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%82%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%85%F0%9D%96%8E) $1.29 $0.50 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [𝖂𝖎𝖅𝖎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%82%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%85%F0%9D%96%8E) $1.29 $1.14 0.88x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [𝖂𝖎𝖅𝖎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%82%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%85%F0%9D%96%8E) $1.29 $1.14 0.88x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.29 | 71.56% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.29 | 71.29% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.31% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.16% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.38% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.29 | 71.72% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.69% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.75% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.81% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.93% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.29 | 72.26% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.29 | 72.32% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.20% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.28% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.24% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.24% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.35% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.31% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.27% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.31% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.29 | 72.71% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.29 | 72.72% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.59% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.21% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.40% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.38% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.29 | 72.42% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.1% #8847ff 3.8% restricted 40.8% mil spec 18.8% Rare 18.2% milspec 18.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.56 on average: an expected loss of $28.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt