---
title: "SERJTHEKING case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SERJTHEKING ($4.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.57% from 30 items with odds, observed 76.43% over 1,042 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [SERJTHEKING](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · SERJTHEKING

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=all)

Price · $4.79

Advertised RTP · 75.57% · EV $3.62 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.43% · 1,042 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.31% ±12.62 134 openings

7 days · 76.65% ±5.01 894 openings

30 days · 76.43% ±4.67 1,042 openings

since tracking started · 76.43% ±4.67 1,042 openings

61.0% 74.3% 87.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=24h) | 134 | 74.31% ±12.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=7d) | 894 | 76.65% ±5.01 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow) | 1,042 | 76.43% ±4.67 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/getfuckshow?window=all) | 1,042 | 76.43% ±4.67 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,043 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 194,058 | $525 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49,994 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49,956 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 43,678 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34,260 | $96.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 33,414 | $96.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 31,056 | $93.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,727 | $58.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,665 | $55.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 6,601 | $53.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,983 | $44.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 2,026 | $35.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $33.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,505 | $31.94 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $23.22 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 593 | $23.18 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $18.46 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $12.20 | 3.4% | 18 | 10.5 | 1.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $11.98 | 3.5% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $9.13 | 5.3% | 28 | 21.9 | 1.28× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.45 | 8.0% | 38 | 46.8 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $6.37 | 8.1% | 5 | 47.9 | 0.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.72 | 8.8% | 63 | 58.3 | 1.08× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.22 | 10.2% | 92 | 91.3 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 10.5% | $3.53 | 10.2% | 119 | 109.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 11.7% | $3.00 | 9.7% | 115 | 122.0 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $2.02 | 7.0% | 69 | 130.4 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 12.4% | $1.95 | 6.7% | 99 | 129.6 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 12.4% | $1.93 | 6.6% | 23 | 129.3 | 0.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.71 | 5.7% | 134 | 125.1 | 1.07× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=getfuckshow)

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [LEGBA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LEGBA) $4.79 $6.37 1.33x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [LEGBA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LEGBA) $4.79 $1.71 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.79 $2.02 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC

[Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) [LEGBA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LEGBA) $4.79 $9.13 1.91x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [LEGBA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LEGBA) $4.79 $3.56 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Haunter](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Haunter) $4.79 $12.20 2.55x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $4.79 $3.53 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $4.79 $1.71 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $4.79 $1.95 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [gxx-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gxx-) $4.79 $1.70 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.79 | 75.57% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.79 | 75.35% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.21% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.17% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.48% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.79 | 75.83% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.85% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.81% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.87% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.92% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.79 | 76.35% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.79 | 76.33% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.79 | 76.30% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.32% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.34% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.34% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.31% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.32% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.39% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.35% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.27% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.40% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.79 | 76.76% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.79 | 76.77% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.64% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.36% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.46% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.42% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.79 | 76.42% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% classified 28.4% restricted 24.6% pink 16.3% #d32ee6 5.6% #8847ff 12.5% Mythical 12.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.57 on average: an expected loss of $24.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt