---
title: "Golden doubloon case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden doubloon ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.87% from 39 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Golden doubloon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Golden doubloon

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 73.87% · EV $1.03 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldendoubloon?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192,615 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192,548 | $170 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 178,684 | $117 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 173,279 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 165,488 | $96.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 144,705 | $79.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 141,269 | $77.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106,412 | $60.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 94,807 | $55.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 92,560 | $54.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 88,060 | $53.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 78,269 | $49.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63,624 | $44.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 50,169 | $39.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47,991 | $39.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 42,825 | $37.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 14,293 | $24.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 4,745 | $16.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,747 | $15.29 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,096 | $12.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 784 | $8.94 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 618 | $8.24 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 220 | $5.72 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $5.12 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $4.22 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $3.40 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $3.39 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.34 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.26 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.6% | $1.21 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 10.8% | $1.18 | 12.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 12.1% | $0.65 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.61 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.56 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.40 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=goldendoubloon)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 73.87% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.63% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.60% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.38% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.83% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.07% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.03% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.19% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.09% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.16% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.58% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.64% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.64% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.55% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.58% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.54% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.54% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 74.98% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 74.99% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.88% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.77% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.71% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.68% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.9% covert 0.0% red 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 13.6% mil spec 30.9% #d32ee6 0.5% Legendary 0.6% pink 1.8% #8847ff 15.0% restricted 16.0% blue 17.2% milspec 2.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.87 on average: an expected loss of $26.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt