---
title: "Золотой листопад case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Золотой листопад ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.82% from 29 items with odds, observed 83.71% over 1,071 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Золотой листопад](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Золотой листопад

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.82% · EV $0.51 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.71% · 1,071 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82 openings · below min

7 days · 84.29% ±5.01 927 openings

30 days · 83.71% ±4.70 1,071 openings

since tracking started · 83.71% ±4.70 1,071 openings

75.0% 93.5% 112.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.00% – 88.41%, 1,071 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=24h) | 82 | 94.20% ±17.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=7d) | 927 | 84.29% ±5.01 | +3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall) | 1,071 | 83.71% ±4.70 | +3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/goldenleaffall?window=all) | 1,071 | 83.71% ±4.70 | +3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,071 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 9,505 | $19.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,475 | $19.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 9,337 | $17.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 8,191 | $12.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 8,131 | $11.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,052 | $9.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,094 | $6.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $5.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 2,909 | $5.37 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 1,843 | $4.39 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,565 | $4.11 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 1,008 | $3.46 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.82× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 941 | $3.37 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.76× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 472 | $2.61 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $2.08 | 1.6% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.24 | 3.7% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.18× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $1.07 | 4.5% | 38 | 23.1 | 1.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.82 | 6.1% | 53 | 40.7 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.76 | 6.4% | 49 | 46.1 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 7.5% | 101 | 68.1 | 1.48× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.58 | 7.5% | 69 | 70.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.56 | 7.7% | 77 | 74.5 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.54 | 7.7% | 80 | 77.1 | 1.04× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.40 | 7.4% | 70 | 101.3 | 0.69× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.38 | 7.2% | 111 | 104.5 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.36 | 7.0% | 48 | 106.9 | 0.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.34 | 6.7% | 30 | 109.0 | 0.28× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 10.3% | $0.32 | 6.4% | 57 | 110.3 | 0.52× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.29 | 6.0% | 4 | 111.3 | 0.04× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=goldenleaffall)

[SG 553 | Atlas (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-field-tested) [ШЛЯПА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%90) $0.67 $0.32 0.47x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [ШЛЯПА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%90) $0.67 $0.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [ШЛЯПА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%90) $0.67 $0.60 0.90x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) [ШЛЯПА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%90) $0.67 $0.86 1.28x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) [ШЛЯПА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A8%D0%9B%D0%AF%D0%9F%D0%90) $0.67 $0.35 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) [chainchiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/chainchiller) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [chainchiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/chainchiller) $0.67 $0.59 0.88x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) [stervonskiy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/stervonskiy) $0.67 $0.33 0.50x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) [stervonskiy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/stervonskiy) $0.67 $0.80 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [stervonskiy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/stervonskiy) $0.67 $0.58 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 75.82% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.75% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.62% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.44% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.79% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.17% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.20% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.07% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.12% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.25% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.45% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.53% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.53% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.67% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.54% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.67% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.07% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 76.95% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.95% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.49% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.84% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.71% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.4% rare 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 0.1% #d32ce6 0.0% restricted 19.5% violet 18.6% Mythical 20.4% #4b69ff 10.0% mil spec 20.6% milspec 10.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.82 on average: an expected loss of $24.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt