--- title: "Gustinha mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gustinha mining ($0.53) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 67.15% from 12 items with odds, observed 19401.17% over 151 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining rendered: 2026-11-11T18:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Gustinha mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Gustinha mining A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=all) Price · $0.53 Advertised RTP · 67.15% · EV $0.36 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 19401.17% · 151 openings, odds method Variance · 129.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 498 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 102 openings · below min 30 days · 151 openings · below min since tracking started · 151 openings · below min 66.5% 9833.0% 19599.5% **Small sample.** 151 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=24h) | 12 | 17221.07% ±647.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=7d) | 102 | 19372.18% ±226.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining) | 151 | 19401.17% ±188.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/gustinhamining?window=all) | 151 | 19401.17% ±188.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,931 | $192 | 9.1% | 8 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,187 | $152 | 10.2% | 14 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,007 | $128 | 11.9% | 14 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,238 | $112 | 14.0% | 14 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,216 | $87.53 | 20.2% | 17 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 651 | $69.59 | 30.0% | 63 | 0.2 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 20.9% | $0.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 31.6 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 27.2 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 18.6% | $0.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 28.1 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 15.8% | $0.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 23.9 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 15.4% | $0.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 23.3 | 0.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.5 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $203 383.2x 2026-11-03 06:02 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $201 379.2x 2026-11-04 02:13 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $196 370.0x 2026-11-05 01:18 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [Mk\_And](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mk_And) $0.53 $193 364.7x 2026-11-05 21:34 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $192 362.1x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [RICHI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RICHI) $0.53 $192 361.7x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [BERZMAD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BERZMAD) $0.53 $190 358.4x 2026-11-05 16:51 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [Charlápiou](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Charl%C3%A1piou) $0.53 $188 355.6x 2026-11-08 03:26 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Fade knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $159 300.3x 2026-11-03 00:50 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $158 298.2x 2026-11-03 08:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=gustinhamining) [★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) [PROTEST](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROTEST) $0.53 $128 241.0x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [PROTEST](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROTEST) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $192 362.1x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $87.53 165.2x 2026-11-11 14:41 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:41 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $0.53 $69.59 131.3x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.53 $71.70 135.3x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.53 | 67.15% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.53 | 66.94% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.53 | 66.84% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.53 | 66.85% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.53 | 67.10% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.53 | 67.37% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.48% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.53 | 67.83% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.53 | 67.85% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.88% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.89% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.81% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.87% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.85% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.84% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.81% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.92% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.53 | 68.21% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.53 | 68.23% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.53 | 68.12% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.89% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.97% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.92% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.53 | 67.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% Covert 0.1% consumer 99.6% best hit $203 (383.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 67.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $67.15 on average: an expected loss of $32.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt