---
title: "Horizon case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Horizon case ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.52% from 17 items with odds, observed 86.12% over 558 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Horizon case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Horizon case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.52% · EV $0.51 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.12% · 558 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 60 openings · below min

7 days · 84.57% ±9.41 419 openings

30 days · 86.12% ±8.21 558 openings

since tracking started · 86.12% ±8.21 558 openings

53.0% 78.5% 104.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.91% – 94.33%, 558 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=24h) | 60 | 78.51% ±24.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=7d) | 419 | 84.57% ±9.41 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon) | 558 | 86.12% ±8.21 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/horizon?window=all) | 558 | 86.12% ±8.21 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 9,820 | $39.83 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 9,798 | $38.24 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 1,831 | $6.32 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 1,080 | $5.13 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 1,065 | $5.10 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $1.97 | 4.6% | 16 | 6.6 | 2.41× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.87 | 10.6% | 47 | 34.5 | 1.36× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.70 | 11.0% | 63 | 44.3 | 1.42× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.68 | 10.9% | 25 | 45.4 | 0.55× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.58 | 10.5% | 33 | 51.3 | 0.64× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.55 | 10.2% | 38 | 52.5 | 0.72× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.38 | 7.5% | 4 | 55.8 | 0.07× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.36 | 7.0% | 42 | 55.3 | 0.76× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.35 | 6.8% | 37 | 55.1 | 0.67× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.35 | 6.7% | 25 | 54.9 | 0.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.30 | 5.6% | 38 | 52.4 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.25 | 4.3% | 12 | 48.2 | 0.25× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=horizon)

[R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-minimal-wear) [Ogurchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ogurchik) $0.67 $0.39 0.57x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [Ogurchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ogurchik) $0.67 $0.55 0.82x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [Revelation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Revelation) $0.67 $0.65 0.97x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) [K7](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/K7) $0.67 $0.26 0.39x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) [☭Mr.M†rror↯](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%ADMr.M%E2%80%A0rror%E2%86%AF) $0.67 $0.26 0.39x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [ImWithStupid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ImWithStupid) $0.67 $0.55 0.82x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) [★★★ 𝕄𝕂 ★★★](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%20%20%F0%9D%95%84%F0%9D%95%82%20%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85) $0.67 $0.46 0.68x 2026-11-11 03:16 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) [ShittyVinny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ShittyVinny) $0.67 $0.34 0.50x 2026-11-10 22:00 UTC

[MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) [reTray](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/reTray) $0.67 $0.36 0.53x 2026-11-10 21:55 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) [reTray](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/reTray) $0.67 $0.68 1.01x 2026-11-10 21:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.52% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.45% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.27% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.73% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.07% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.03% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.06% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.23% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.57% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.49% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.67% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.48% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.00% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 76.98% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.88% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.69% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% pink 0.1% classified 0.2% Mythical 7.4% restricted 25.3% mil spec 67.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.52 on average: an expected loss of $24.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt