--- title: "Горячий шоколад case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Горячий шоколад ($20.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.88% from 30 items with odds, observed 76.60% over 3,357 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Горячий шоколад](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Горячий шоколад A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=all) Price · $20.99 Advertised RTP · 73.88% · EV $15.51 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.60% · 3,357 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68.60% ±6.88 416 openings 7 days · 76.74% ±2.71 2,758 openings 30 days · 76.60% ±2.45 3,357 openings since tracking started · 76.60% ±2.45 3,357 openings 61.0% 70.5% 80.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=24h) | 416 | 68.60% ±6.88 | −1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=7d) | 2,758 | 76.74% ±2.71 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate) | 3,357 | 76.60% ±2.45 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hothocolate?window=all) | 3,357 | 76.60% ±2.45 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,360 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 9,699 | $626 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 9,590 | $563 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 9,480 | $518 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,323 | $335 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,358 | $277 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 7,285 | $273 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,416 | $208 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,955 | $195 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 3,709 | $164 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,454 | $108 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 1,316 | $104 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.57× | | [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 784 | $85.35 | 0.7% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 498 | $72.26 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $60.93 | 1.3% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $53.04 | 1.6% | 13 | 15.8 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $38.24 | 2.8% | 44 | 37.9 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $35.04 | 3.2% | 44 | 47.4 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $30.73 | 3.9% | 60 | 65.8 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $28.60 | 4.3% | 78 | 78.1 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $24.07 | 5.3% | 109 | 115.4 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $19.25 | 6.7% | 122 | 180.4 | 0.68× | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 18 | $18.80 | 6.8% | 213 | 188.2 | 1.13× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $17.70 | 7.1% | 111 | 209.1 | 0.53× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $17.53 | 7.2% | 223 | 212.6 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $16.26 | 7.5% | 43 | 239.6 | 0.18× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $12.25 | 8.1% | 354 | 342.6 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 10.4% | $12.02 | 8.0% | 419 | 348.8 | 1.20× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 11.0% | $11.24 | 8.0% | 415 | 370.1 | 1.12× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 13.0% | $7.95 | 6.7% | 440 | 437.1 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 13.1% | $7.60 | 6.4% | 170 | 439.8 | 0.39× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) [𝖎𝖈𝖊𝖈𝖗𝖎𝖒𝖊](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%88%F0%9D%96%8A%F0%9D%96%88%F0%9D%96%97%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%92%F0%9D%96%8A) $20.99 $672 32.00x 2026-11-06 15:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=hothocolate) [XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [Mersedes-Benz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mersedes-Benz) $20.99 $8.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $8.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $17.49 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $35.80 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $17.49 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $12.19 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $8.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $29.52 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $20.99 $8.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $20.99 $8.43 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $20.99 | 73.88% | 30 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.71% | 29 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.70% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.98% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $20.99 | 74.30% | 29 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.31% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.29% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.35% | 29 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.42% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $20.99 | 74.80% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.76% | 29 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.89% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $20.99 | 75.23% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $20.99 | 75.22% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $20.99 | 75.14% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 29 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 29 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $20.99 | 74.92% | 29 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $20.99 | 74.91% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% rare 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% red 3.5% classified 66.2% Ancient 5.6% mil spec 7.1% pink 13.1% best hit $672 (32.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.88 on average: an expected loss of $26.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt