---
title: "Hydra case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hydra ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.21% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.87% over 115 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Hydra](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Hydra

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 75.21% · EV $8.27 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.87% · 115 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 90.82% ±14.64 113 openings

30 days · 89.87% ±14.52 115 openings

since tracking started · 89.87% ±14.52 115 openings

22.0% 95.8% 169.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=24h) | 4 | 95.75% ±73.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=7d) | 113 | 90.82% ±14.6 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra) | 115 | 89.87% ±14.5 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hydra?window=all) | 115 | 89.87% ±14.5 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 6,832 | $227 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 5,930 | $199 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $72.26 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $46.00 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $44.09 | 3.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $23.73 | 9.0% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $17.36 | 13.7% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $16.42 | 14.6% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.54× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $15.47 | 15.5% | 15 | 9.5 | 1.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 24.9% | $4.81 | 14.5% | 2 | 28.7 | 0.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 24.4% | $4.25 | 12.5% | 2 | 28.0 | 0.07× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 24.1% | $4.07 | 11.9% | 29 | 27.7 | 1.05× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=hydra)

[P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) [robert.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/robert.) $10.99 $17.25 1.57x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) [Boxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boxi) $10.99 $4.98 0.45x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) [Boxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boxi) $10.99 $4.09 0.37x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC

[P2000 | Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) [mAge](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mAge) $10.99 $15.77 1.43x 2026-11-10 14:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $10.99 $4.47 0.41x 2026-11-10 10:10 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) [robert.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/robert.) $10.99 $18.07 1.64x 2026-11-09 19:46 UTC

[SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $10.99 $16.74 1.52x 2026-11-09 08:45 UTC

[UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $10.99 $4.55 0.41x 2026-11-09 08:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $10.99 $24.50 2.23x 2026-11-09 08:03 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $10.99 $17.88 1.63x 2026-11-08 22:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.21% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.02% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.31% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.66% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.71% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.77% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.11% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.60% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.50% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.30% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.29% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.23% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 1.3% violet 11.4% restricted 13.9% mil spec 49.0% blue 24.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.21 on average: an expected loss of $24.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt