---
title: "Hyper Knife case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hyper Knife ($80.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.63% from 30 items with odds, observed 78.22% over 471 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Hyper Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Hyper Knife

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=all)

Price · $80.99

Advertised RTP · 76.63% · EV $62.06 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.22% · 471 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 50 openings · below min

7 days · 78.68% ±5.43 426 openings

30 days · 78.22% ±5.17 471 openings

since tracking started · 78.22% ±5.17 471 openings

59.0% 75.0% 91.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=24h) | 50 | 74.99% ±15.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=7d) | 426 | 78.68% ±5.43 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper) | 471 | 78.22% ±5.17 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/hyper?window=all) | 471 | 78.22% ±5.17 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 471 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 12,164 | $794 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 11,705 | $784 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 4,811 | $575 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 994 | $335 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 993 | $335 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 580 | $279 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 473 | $260 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $243 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $208 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 221 | $199 | 1.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $167 | 2.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $162 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $161 | 2.1% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $156 | 2.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $148 | 2.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $116 | 3.7% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $114 | 3.8% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $93.88 | 5.0% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $91.04 | 5.2% | 14 | 16.7 | 0.84× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $86.49 | 5.5% | 32 | 18.7 | 1.71× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $84.45 | 5.7% | 12 | 19.7 | 0.61× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $80.39 | 6.0% | 20 | 22.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $78.69 | 6.2% | 31 | 23.0 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $75.38 | 6.5% | 33 | 25.2 | 1.31× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $67.57 | 7.2% | 13 | 31.3 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $61.12 | 7.9% | 39 | 37.6 | 1.04× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 10.1% | $52.83 | 8.6% | 35 | 47.5 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 16.8% | $30.73 | 8.3% | 72 | 79.1 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 11.6% | $9.89 | 1.8% | 53 | 54.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.45 | 0.6% | 29 | 32.5 | 0.89× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=hyper)

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Globe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Globe) $80.99 $93.44 1.15x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Globe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Globe) $80.99 $30.20 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $77.12 0.95x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $161 1.99x 2026-11-11 09:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $52.91 0.65x 2026-11-11 09:28 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $9.89 0.12x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $30.73 0.38x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $5.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 08:33 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $77.18 0.95x 2026-11-11 07:17 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $80.99 $9.74 0.12x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $80.99 | 76.63% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.46% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.44% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.73% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $80.99 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.06% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.12% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.19% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $80.99 | 77.59% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $80.99 | 77.58% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.59% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.60% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.55% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.67% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $80.99 | 78.02% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $80.99 | 78.03% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.94% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.72% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.70% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $80.99 | 77.72% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $80.99 | 77.69% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.6% sunny 2.1% covert knife 1.0% red 24.8% classified 11.6% rare 6.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.63 on average: an expected loss of $23.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt