---
title: "Ice Spice case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ice Spice ($0.93) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.88% from 30 items with odds, observed 79.43% over 21.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Ice Spice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Ice Spice

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=all)

Price · $0.93

Advertised RTP · 78.88% · EV $0.73 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.43% · 21.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.88% ±3.88 2,070 openings

7 days · 79.14% ±1.24 19K openings

30 days · 79.43% ±1.16 21.8K openings

since tracking started · 79.43% ±1.16 21.8K openings

74.5% 79.0% 83.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=24h) | 2,070 | 78.88% ±3.88 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=7d) | 19K | 79.14% ±1.24 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice) | 21.8K | 79.43% ±1.16 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/icespice?window=all) | 21.8K | 79.43% ±1.16 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 9,729 | $37.55 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 9,548 | $31.47 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 9,443 | $29.25 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 8,429 | $19.91 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 7,563 | $16.58 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 5,430 | $12.02 | 0.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 5,384 | $11.95 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 2,869 | $8.35 | 0.4% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $6.42 | 0.6% | 6 | 14.0 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 1,503 | $6.32 | 0.6% | 1 | 14.5 | 0.07× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 1,032 | $5.46 | 0.7% | 13 | 21.2 | 0.61× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 703 | $4.72 | 0.9% | 8 | 31.1 | 0.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 305 | $3.46 | 1.5% | 72 | 71.7 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $2.84 | 2.2% | 386 | 122.1 | 3.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $2.32 | 3.0% | 198 | 205.7 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $1.97 | 3.8% | 341 | 308.8 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.22 | 6.4% | 908 | 843.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.20 | 6.5% | 730 | 863.1 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.13 | 6.8% | 987 | 958.3 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 19 | $0.99 | 7.2% | 1,234 | 1172.0 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.95 | 7.2% | 1,175 | 1222.7 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.89 | 7.4% | 1,332 | 1332.9 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.68 | 7.2% | 1,503 | 1686.5 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.49 | 5.7% | 1,846 | 1882.0 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 5.6% | 1,858 | 1882.7 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 5.6% | 1,541 | 1882.8 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.46 | 5.4% | 1,788 | 1881.7 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.39 | 4.5% | 1,515 | 1835.2 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.38 | 4.3% | 1,271 | 1814.6 | 0.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 3.9% | 1,460 | 1775.9 | 0.82× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=icespice)

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [D@rKnEsS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%40rKnEsS) $0.93 $2.50 2.69x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [VALERON142RUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VALERON142RUS) $0.93 $0.87 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-field-tested) [VALERON142RUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VALERON142RUS) $0.93 $0.51 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [VALERON142RUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VALERON142RUS) $0.93 $0.48 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) [VALERON142RUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VALERON142RUS) $0.93 $0.37 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [☬ᴠᴇɴᴏᴍ☬](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%AC%E1%B4%A0%E1%B4%87%C9%B4%E1%B4%8F%E1%B4%8D%E2%98%AC) $0.93 $0.70 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [Mersedes-Benz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mersedes-Benz) $0.93 $0.48 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [DmnSrgn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DmnSrgn) $0.93 $0.99 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) [CETC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CETC) $0.93 $1.22 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [CETC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CETC) $0.93 $0.70 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.93 | 78.88% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.63% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.71% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.99% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.93 | 79.39% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.32% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.38% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.37% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.49% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.93 | 79.95% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.93 | 79.97% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.93 | 79.93% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.88% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.98% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.98% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.92% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.88% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.86% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 80.01% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.84% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.97% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.93 | 80.26% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.93 | 80.34% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.30% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.90% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.04% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.01% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.93 | 79.99% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.93 | 80.04% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 0.2% classified 0.2% uncommon 8.7% Legendary 0.3% #8847ff 28.3% Mythical 14.5% restricted 7.8% violet 31.7% Restricted 8.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.88 on average: an expected loss of $21.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt