---
title: "Italy case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Italy ($0.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 69.06% from 15 items with odds, observed 177.43% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Italy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Italy

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=all)

Price · $0.09

Advertised RTP · 69.06% · EV $0.06 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 177.43% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 9 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

69.5% 156.8% 244.0%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=7d) | 9 | 205.80% ±37.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy) | 16 | 177.43% ±28.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/italy?window=all) | 16 | 177.43% ±28.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,751 | $1.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,456 | $1.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,252 | $0.66 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.12 | 12.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.11 | 12.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.11 | 12.8% | 12 | 1.2 | 10.21× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.10 | 13.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-minimal-wear) | 10.7% | $0.08 | 13.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.07 | 13.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 13.2% | $0.05 | 11.4% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.02 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.01 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | \<$0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=italy)

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [tripflex45](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/tripflex45) $0.09 $0.11 1.22x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.15 1.64x 2026-11-07 20:53 UTC

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.68 7.56x 2026-11-07 20:53 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.15 1.64x 2026-11-07 20:53 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) [ЧИЧА Сыроежкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%A7%D0%90%20%D0%A1%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $0.09 $0.15 1.64x 2026-11-07 17:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $0.09 $0.11 1.20x 2026-11-06 05:42 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $0.09 $0.11 1.20x 2026-11-06 05:42 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [адреналин черный](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.09 $0.11 1.20x 2026-11-05 23:20 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [ПИПКАVOKI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%9A%D0%90VOKI) $0.09 $0.11 1.21x 2026-11-05 10:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.09 | 69.06% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.09 | 68.84% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.71% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.98% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.09 | 69.02% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.09 | 69.48% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.37% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.64% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.40% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.61% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.09 | 69.70% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.09 | 69.67% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.09 | 69.70% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.82% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.86% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.76% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.66% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.77% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.91% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.83% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.97% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.87% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.13% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.09 | 70.32% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.09 | 70.26% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.20% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.83% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.09% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.00% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.09 | 70.18% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 10.7% restricted 0.0% mil spec 0.0% blue 7.4% industrial 40.2% Industrial Grade 7.1% consumer 26.8% Consumer 7.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 69.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $69.06 on average: an expected loss of $30.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt