---
title: "Lake case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lake ($0.07) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.03% from 10 items with odds, observed 231.82% over 109 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Lake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Lake

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=all)

Price · $0.07

Advertised RTP · 74.03% · EV $0.05 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 231.82% · 109 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 52.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 84 openings · below min

30 days · 231.82% ±9.08 109 openings

since tracking started · 231.82% ±9.08 109 openings

73.0% 196.5% 320.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (222.74% – 240.91%, 109 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=24h) | 6 | 284.05% ±35.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=7d) | 84 | 229.18% ±10.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake) | 109 | 231.82% ±9.08 | +33.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lake?window=all) | 109 | 231.82% ±9.08 | +33.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 925 | $0.36 | 0.8% | 9 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 535 | $0.30 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $0.17 | 3.2% | 19 | 1.1 | 17.60× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.15 | 4.1% | 55 | 1.6 | 34.66× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.14 | 4.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.07 | 12.0% | 0 | 9.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 19.3% | $0.05 | 17.9% | 0 | 21.1 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) | 20.4% | $0.05 | 18.1% | 0 | 22.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 21.5% | $0.04 | 18.7% | 0 | 23.5 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 25.8% | $0.04 | 19.4% | 0 | 28.1 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=lake)

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [Leo\_oop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Leo_oop) $0.07 $0.17 2.49x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [Leo\_oop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Leo_oop) $0.07 $0.17 2.49x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) [Leo\_oop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Leo_oop) $0.07 $0.36 5.16x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [Konstantin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Konstantin) $0.07 $0.17 2.49x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [Konstantin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Konstantin) $0.07 $0.17 2.49x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) [Konstantin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Konstantin) $0.07 $0.14 1.94x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) [んﾑ乃ﾑズﾉ丂ﾑズﾑ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E3%82%93%EF%BE%91%E4%B9%83%EF%BE%91%E3%82%BA%EF%BE%89%E4%B8%82%EF%BE%91%E3%82%BA%EF%BE%91) $0.07 $0.11 1.56x 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) [tripflex45](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/tripflex45) $0.07 $0.26 3.67x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [kaka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kaka) $0.07 $0.16 2.31x 2026-11-09 21:06 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-field-tested) [Lemos75](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lemos75) $0.07 $0.12 1.77x 2026-11-09 20:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 74.03% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.91% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.87% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.84% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 74.63% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.45% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.55% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.27% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.12% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 75.27% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 75.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 75.20% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.07 | 74.81% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 74.86% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 75.16% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.91% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.82% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 75.07% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.73% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 75.18% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.89% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.15% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 75.52% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 75.40% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.35% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.00% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.22% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.18% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.07 | 74.91% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.07 | 75.05% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #8847ff 0.1% Rare 1.6% mil spec 1.0% industrial 71.4% consumer 25.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.03 on average: an expected loss of $25.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt