---
title: "Lesin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lesin ($3.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.15% from 41 items with odds, observed 78.73% over 1,330 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Lesin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Lesin

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=all)

Price · $3.99

Advertised RTP · 75.15% · EV $3.00 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.73% · 1,330 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.00% ±12.69 114 openings

7 days · 77.00% ±4.01 1,105 openings

30 days · 78.73% ±3.64 1,330 openings

since tracking started · 78.73% ±3.64 1,330 openings

62.5% 76.0% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=24h) | 114 | 76.00% ±12.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=7d) | 1,105 | 77.00% ±4.01 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin) | 1,330 | 78.73% ±3.64 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lesin?window=all) | 1,330 | 78.73% ±3.64 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,331 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 109,921 | $133 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 105,662 | $129 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Well-Worn) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-well-worn) | 1 in 91,853 | $118 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,941 | $117 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 86,325 | $113 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 78,104 | $107 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 68,656 | $99.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 60,615 | $94.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59,478 | $93.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 57,076 | $91.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 31,310 | $70.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,391 | $60.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 15,007 | $53.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,103 | $44.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 8,686 | $44.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 6,511 | $39.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,153 | $39.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 4,320 | $34.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 4,053 | $33.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,419 | $31.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,564 | $24.41 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $12.14 | 1.9% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $11.98 | 1.9% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $11.73 | 2.0% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $8.71 | 3.2% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.88× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $8.44 | 3.4% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $6.97 | 4.4% | 31 | 25.0 | 1.24× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $6.44 | 4.8% | 38 | 29.7 | 1.28× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $5.48 | 5.7% | 43 | 41.4 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.54 | 6.6% | 70 | 57.7 | 1.21× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.26 | 6.8% | 67 | 63.5 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.37 | 7.2% | 83 | 85.4 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.85 | 7.0% | 113 | 98.6 | 1.15× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.72 | 6.9% | 36 | 101.7 | 0.35× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.11 | 5.9% | 123 | 111.5 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.96 | 5.5% | 60 | 112.2 | 0.53× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.94 | 5.5% | 57 | 112.3 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.89 | 5.3% | 139 | 112.2 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.74 | 4.9% | 68 | 111.5 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.71 | 4.8% | 122 | 111.1 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.38 | 3.6% | 0 | 104.4 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=lesin)

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) [asfQQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/asfQQ) $3.99 $2.70 0.68x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Дочь Арматуры](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%94%D0%BE%D1%87%D1%8C%20%D0%90%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D1%8B) $3.99 $1.71 0.43x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) [shtanga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shtanga) $3.99 $1.87 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) [Miyazaki Rin ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Miyazaki%20Rin%20%E2%9D%A4) $3.99 $3.37 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CS2SKINS.GIFT) $3.99 $4.26 1.07x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) [USHARA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/USHARA) $3.99 $6.97 1.75x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [USHARA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/USHARA) $3.99 $1.89 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $3.99 $1.71 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $3.99 $4.26 1.07x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $3.99 $2.72 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $3.99 | 75.15% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.99 | 74.92% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.99 | 74.73% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.99 | 74.73% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.99 | 75.05% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.99 | 75.36% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.38% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.34% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.42% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.50% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.99 | 75.92% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.91% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.91% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.89% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.94% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.87% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.82% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.95% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.99 | 76.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.99 | 76.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.99 | 76.24% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.92% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.99% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.96% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.99 | 76.04% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% #d32ee6 3.4% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 13.1% extraordinary 0.0% violet 1.1% pink 12.6% Restricted 4.8% #8847ff 24.2% #4b69ff 7.6% Rare 16.8% restricted 8.4% Industrial Grade 7.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.15 on average: an expected loss of $24.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt