---
title: "Александрийский маяк case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Александрийский маяк ($239.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.94% from 19 items with odds, observed 74.84% over 126 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Александрийский маяк](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Александрийский маяк

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=all)

Price · $239.00

Advertised RTP · 75.94% · EV $181.50 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.84% · 126 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 74.32% ±9.19 121 openings

30 days · 74.84% ±9.00 126 openings

since tracking started · 74.84% ±9.00 126 openings

38.0% 66.0% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=24h) | 12 | 66.17% ±27.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=7d) | 121 | 74.32% ±9.19 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria) | 126 | 74.84% ±9.00 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lighthouseofalexandria?window=all) | 126 | 74.84% ±9.00 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 390 | $867 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $747 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 239 | $729 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 201 | $685 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $559 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $477 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $464 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $456 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $425 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.37× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $293 | 6.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $240 | 7.7% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $196 | 8.4% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $176 | 8.6% | 12 | 11.2 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $161 | 8.6% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $160 | 8.6% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $156 | 8.6% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 11.9% | $107 | 7.0% | 8 | 15.0 | 0.53× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 12.0% | $103 | 6.8% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 11.8% | $83.20 | 5.4% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) [BARAKUDA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BARAKUDA) $239 $934 3.91x 2026-11-06 12:12 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $239 $747 3.13x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $239 $708 2.96x 2026-11-05 23:24 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [Placeonme](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Placeonme) $239 $695 2.91x 2026-11-06 01:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [ГОЛЫЙ ПИСТОЛЕТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%9E%D0%9B%D0%AB%D0%99%20%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%9E%D0%9B%D0%95%D0%A2) $239 $555 2.32x 2026-11-06 17:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=lighthouseofalexandria)

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $239 $82.89 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Прикол](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB) $239 $109 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $239 $175 0.73x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $239 $83.18 0.35x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) [97z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/97z) $239 $162 0.68x 2026-11-11 08:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [97z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/97z) $239 $205 0.86x 2026-11-11 08:33 UTC

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) [-ʙʟᴀᴅᴇ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%CA%99%CA%9F%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%85%E1%B4%87) $239 $162 0.68x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [MPC TURN OFF CAPS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MPC%20TURN%20OFF%20CAPS) $239 $177 0.74x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [MPC TURN OFF CAPS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MPC%20TURN%20OFF%20CAPS) $239 $204 0.85x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $239 $177 0.74x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $239 | 75.94% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $239 | 75.75% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $239 | 75.58% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $239 | 75.56% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $239 | 75.85% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $239 | 76.18% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $239 | 76.19% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $239 | 76.17% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $239 | 76.24% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $239 | 76.30% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $239 | 76.73% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $239 | 76.70% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $239 | 76.69% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $239 | 76.72% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $239 | 76.72% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $239 | 76.72% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $239 | 76.73% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $239 | 76.70% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $239 | 76.71% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $239 | 76.72% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $239 | 76.72% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $239 | 76.66% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $239 | 76.78% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $239 | 77.13% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $239 | 77.14% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $239 | 77.04% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $239 | 76.73% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $239 | 76.83% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $239 | 76.82% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $239 | 76.83% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 24.9% sunny 0.4% extraordinary 33.1% covert 27.1% rare 0.9% restricted 1.7% Covert 11.9% best hit $934 (3.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.94 on average: an expected loss of $24.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt