---
title: "Необычный Зимний Приз case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Необычный Зимний Приз ($0.68) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.14% from 36 items with odds, observed 73.24% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Необычный Зимний Приз](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Необычный Зимний Приз

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=all)

Price · $0.68

Advertised RTP · 76.14% · EV $0.52 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.24% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 174.8% 350.0%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=7d) | 1 | 73.24% ±276.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1) | 1 | 73.24% ±276.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited1?window=all) | 1 | 73.24% ±276.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,803 | $243 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,686 | $208 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 197,206 | $99.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196,943 | $96.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 196,794 | $95.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193,959 | $76.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 189,454 | $63.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,082 | $41.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 151,539 | $35.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139,476 | $31.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 131,781 | $30.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 123,693 | $28.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 66,880 | $19.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26,756 | $12.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24,514 | $12.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,544 | $12.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 10,847 | $9.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 3,647 | $6.37 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 1,585 | $4.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,095 | $4.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 1,049 | $4.15 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 446 | $3.09 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $2.90 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $1.71 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.92 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.78 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.76 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.61 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.58 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.53 | 9.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $0.45 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 10.7% | $0.36 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) | 10.7% | $0.35 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 10.7% | $0.33 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.23 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=limited1)

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [✪ ufwack](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%AA%20ufwack) $0.68 $0.50 0.73x 2026-11-08 22:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.68 | 76.14% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.68 | 76.02% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.68 | 75.86% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.68 | 75.87% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.68 | 76.15% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.68 | 76.61% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.68 | 76.60% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.68 | 76.59% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.68 | 76.48% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.68 | 76.54% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.68 | 77.06% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.68 | 76.96% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.68 | 77.03% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.68 | 77.00% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.68 | 76.99% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.68 | 77.00% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.68 | 76.98% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.68 | 76.94% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.68 | 77.11% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.68 | 76.96% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.68 | 77.02% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.68 | 76.98% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.68 | 77.05% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.68 | 77.32% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.68 | 77.39% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.68 | 77.24% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.68 | 77.12% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.68 | 77.14% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.68 | 77.21% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.68 | 77.28% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 19.0% pink 0.0% Legendary 0.2% violet 21.4% Mythical 6.1% mil spec 18.7% Rare 20.8% #4b69ff 9.6% milspec 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.14 on average: an expected loss of $23.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt