---
title: "Зимний Щелкунчик case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Зимний Щелкунчик ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.31% from 45 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Зимний Щелкунчик](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Зимний Щелкунчик

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 76.31% · EV $2.59 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited3?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 152,950 | $162 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 149,379 | $156 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 122,286 | $127 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105,618 | $113 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101,809 | $110 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 86,270 | $99.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 46,794 | $73.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44,919 | $72.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,000 | $61.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 25,727 | $57.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20,484 | $52.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 19,399 | $51.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 17,088 | $49.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 15,862 | $48.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 6,133 | $34.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 5,838 | $33.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,675 | $33.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 4,628 | $31.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 4,434 | $30.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 2,265 | $24.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 2,158 | $24.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,093 | $19.00 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 889 | $17.70 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 737 | $16.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 553 | $15.01 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $11.97 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $11.63 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 258 | $11.47 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 234 | $11.08 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $9.89 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $9.52 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $8.22 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.18 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.13 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.28 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.61 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $2.96 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $2.32 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-well-worn) | 10.6% | $1.96 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 10.7% | $1.87 | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.72 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $1.56 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $1.02 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.40 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=limited3)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 76.31% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.15% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.12% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.39% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.75% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.74% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.72% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.76% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.84% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 77.31% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 77.28% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 77.28% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.26% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.27% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.31% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.30% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.26% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.25% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.31% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.29% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.23% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.34% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.68% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.71% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.57% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.26% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.37% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.36% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.40% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $3.39 | 77.33% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 16.7% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% gold 0.0% Legendary 7.7% mil spec 1.0% restricted 37.2% #8847ff 17.2% Mythical 11.1% #4b69ff 4.8% violet 4.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.31 on average: an expected loss of $23.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt