--- title: "Зимний Праздник case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Зимний Праздник ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.18% from 42 items with odds, observed 20.91% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Зимний Праздник](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Зимний Праздник A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=all) Price · $6.79 Advertised RTP · 76.18% · EV $5.17 from 42 items Observed RTP, 30d · 20.91% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 88.3% 177.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=7d) | 1 | 20.91% ±155.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5) | 1 | 20.91% ±155.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/limited5?window=all) | 1 | 20.91% ±155.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 182,012 | $478 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 180,475 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 153,831 | $330 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 104,099 | $227 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 84,590 | $199 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 57,052 | $163 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 52,487 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 30,866 | $125 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 30,795 | $125 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 19,399 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 17,531 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 16,969 | $99.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 14,341 | $93.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,461 | $91.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 11,776 | $87.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 6,839 | $72.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,646 | $67.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,422 | $56.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,365 | $56.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,775 | $52.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,213 | $39.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 733 | $33.46 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 499 | $29.25 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $23.58 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 224 | $21.95 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $19.57 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $11.95 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $11.63 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $11.24 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $11.22 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $7.85 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $6.58 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.85 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $4.55 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.47 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.26 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.15 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $3.36 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.91 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.96 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.71 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.78 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=limited5) [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [ХерМаньяк](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A5%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8C%D1%8F%D0%BA) $6.79 $1.42 0.21x 2026-11-08 03:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.18% | 42 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 42 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.00% | 42 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.29% | 42 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.63% | 42 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.63% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.61% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.67% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.75% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.19% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.14% | 42 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 42 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 42 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 42 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 42 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.19% | 42 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 42 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 42 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.21% | 42 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.57% | 42 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.58% | 42 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.46% | 42 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.18% | 42 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.26% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 77.24% | 42 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 27.0% covert 0.5% Covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% pink 29.5% restricted 15.2% Legendary 11.0% #d32ee6 6.1% violet 10.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.18 on average: an expected loss of $23.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt