---
title: "Lukasscz case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lukasscz ($5.19) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.72% from 42 items with odds, observed 79.33% over 608 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Lukasscz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Lukasscz

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=all)

Price · $5.19

Advertised RTP · 75.72% · EV $3.93 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.33% · 608 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 45 openings · below min

7 days · 78.17% ±7.58 512 openings

30 days · 79.33% ±6.99 608 openings

since tracking started · 79.33% ±6.99 608 openings

54.5% 79.8% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=24h) | 45 | 79.84% ±24.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=7d) | 512 | 78.17% ±7.58 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz) | 608 | 79.33% ±6.99 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/lukasscz?window=all) | 608 | 79.33% ±6.99 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 608 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 18,402 | $213 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,883 | $165 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 15,922 | $148 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,464 | $96.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,001 | $94.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,018 | $44.87 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,478 | $39.91 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,458 | $39.70 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,402 | $39.13 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 807 | $31.93 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $16.15 | 3.1% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $13.35 | 4.0% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $11.98 | 4.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $11.87 | 4.5% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $9.69 | 5.5% | 20 | 13.5 | 1.48× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $8.42 | 6.0% | 10 | 17.0 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $6.37 | 6.4% | 4 | 24.2 | 0.17× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.13 | 6.1% | 37 | 28.5 | 1.30× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.56 | 5.7% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.34 | 5.5% | 36 | 30.5 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.85 | 5.0% | 25 | 31.0 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.64 | 4.7% | 32 | 31.1 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.53 | 4.6% | 31 | 31.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.53 | 4.6% | 40 | 31.0 | 1.29× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.20 | 4.1% | 35 | 30.6 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.88 | 3.6% | 31 | 29.7 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.70 | 3.3% | 36 | 29.0 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.54 | 3.0% | 2 | 28.3 | 0.07× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.34 | 2.7% | 35 | 27.2 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.95 | 2.0% | 24 | 24.4 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.80 | 1.7% | 36 | 23.1 | 1.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.74 | 1.6% | 12 | 22.5 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.05 | 0.6% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.92 | 0.5% | 10 | 13.2 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.90 | 0.5% | 7 | 12.9 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $0.67 | 0.3% | 3 | 9.7 | 0.31× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 70 | $0.59 | 0.2% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 4 | 8.0 | 0.50× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.53 | 0.2% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.48 | 0.1% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $0.27 | 0.0% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=lukasscz)

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) [サカナデ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E3%82%B5%E3%82%AB%E3%83%8A%E3%83%87) $5.19 $1.80 0.35x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [サカナデ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E3%82%B5%E3%82%AB%E3%83%8A%E3%83%87) $5.19 $3.55 0.68x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [Жека Тефтеля♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%A2%D0%B5%D1%84%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F%E2%99%BF) $5.19 $5.24 1.01x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [JEASUSGOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JEASUSGOD) $5.19 $2.54 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.19 $3.53 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [P1NKMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/P1NKMAN) $5.19 $6.37 1.23x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $5.19 $3.54 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [乂 N I S M O 乂](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E4%B9%82%20N%20I%20S%20M%20O%20%E4%B9%82) $5.19 $11.85 2.28x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [乂 N I S M O 乂](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E4%B9%82%20N%20I%20S%20M%20O%20%E4%B9%82) $5.19 $6.34 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $5.19 $1.80 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $5.19 | 75.72% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.19 | 75.55% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.19 | 75.37% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.19 | 75.36% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.19 | 75.65% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.19 | 75.98% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.19 | 76.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.19 | 75.97% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.19 | 76.05% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.19 | 76.10% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.19 | 76.52% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.19 | 76.48% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.19 | 76.46% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.19 | 76.50% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.19 | 76.52% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.19 | 76.51% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.52% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.50% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.49% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.53% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.53% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.19 | 76.44% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.19 | 76.56% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.19 | 76.91% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.19 | 76.92% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.19 | 76.82% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.19 | 76.53% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.19 | 76.62% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.19 | 76.60% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.19 | 76.61% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% rare 1.2% classified 22.9% #d32ee6 0.7% pink 4.0% violet 8.7% Legendary 15.2% Mythical 17.4% restricted 10.9% mil spec 6.8% Rare 3.7% #8847ff 4.9% uncommon 2.6% #4b69ff 0.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.72 on average: an expected loss of $24.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt