--- title: "Luxury knife mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Luxury knife mining ($1.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 65.77% from 11 items with odds, observed 6942.96% over 395 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining rendered: 2026-11-11T21:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Luxury knife mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Luxury knife mining A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=all) Price · $1.79 Advertised RTP · 65.77% · EV $1.18 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6942.96% · 395 openings, odds method Variance · 42.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 161 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67 openings · below min 7 days · 332 openings · below min 30 days · 395 openings · below min since tracking started · 395 openings · below min 65.0% 3598.0% 7131.0% **Small sample.** 395 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=24h) | 67 | 6974.21% ±156.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=7d) | 332 | 6949.50% ±70.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining) | 395 | 6942.96% ±64.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/luxuryknifemining?window=all) | 395 | 6942.96% ±64.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 395 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 673 | $142 | 18.0% | 82 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 490 | $128 | 22.2% | 119 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 371 | $117 | 26.7% | 98 | 1.1 | 92.06× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 347 | $114 | 27.9% | 78 | 1.1 | 68.46× | | [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) | 21.9% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 0 | 86.5 | 0.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 17.4% | $0.07 | 1.0% | 0 | 68.8 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 14.7% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 57.9 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) | 14.4% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 57.0 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 13.6% | $0.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 53.8 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $0.04 | 0.4% | 0 | 43.4 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.9 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Zipper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Zipper) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:24 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Zipper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Zipper) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:24 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Zipper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Zipper) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:23 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [inho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/inho) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:22 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [inho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/inho) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:22 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [inho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/inho) $1.79 $148 82.68x 2026-11-07 00:22 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $148 82.66x 2026-11-07 16:59 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $148 82.66x 2026-11-07 16:53 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $148 82.66x 2026-11-07 16:47 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $148 82.66x 2026-11-07 16:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=luxuryknifemining) [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $127 70.79x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $114 63.61x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $143 79.80x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $143 79.80x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $143 79.80x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $114 63.61x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $127 70.79x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $143 79.80x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.79 $114 63.61x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [SLUT'S ANTHEM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SLUT'S%20ANTHEM) $1.79 $127 70.79x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.79 | 65.77% | 11 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 65.61% | 11 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.46% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.45% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.69% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.00% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.03% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.08% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 66.43% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 66.42% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.41% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.50% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 66.80% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 66.81% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.73% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.53% | 11 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.53% | 11 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 66.54% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.1% covert 0.8% industrial 99.1% best hit $148 (82.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.77 on average: an expected loss of $34.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt