---
title: "M4A1-S case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A1-S ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.88% from 26 items with odds, observed 75.31% over 889 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · M4A1-S

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 73.88% · EV $10.34 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.31% · 889 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 71.76% ±7.22 587 openings

30 days · 75.31% ±5.87 889 openings

since tracking started · 75.31% ±5.87 889 openings

42.0% 66.5% 91.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=24h) | 54 | 66.73% ±23.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=7d) | 587 | 71.76% ±7.22 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s) | 889 | 75.31% ±5.87 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a1s?window=all) | 889 | 75.31% ±5.87 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 889 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19,854 | $1,016 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 19,587 | $716 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 18,679 | $478 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 18,167 | $424 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,493 | $204 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 8,390 | $177 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 7,094 | $162 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,000 | $110 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,846 | $108 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 2,800 | $107 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 2,293 | $99.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 481 | $56.56 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 411 | $53.49 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 393 | $52.68 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $43.24 | 1.9% | 8 | 3.9 | 2.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $28.57 | 3.8% | 5 | 12.2 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $24.07 | 5.0% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $22.19 | 5.6% | 32 | 23.1 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $19.25 | 6.8% | 27 | 32.4 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $16.60 | 8.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $12.21 | 10.5% | 95 | 78.7 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $11.22 | 10.9% | 116 | 89.4 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 15.6% | $7.19 | 10.8% | 163 | 138.6 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 16.0% | $6.84 | 10.6% | 150 | 142.1 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 16.5% | $6.32 | 10.1% | 16 | 146.4 | 0.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 16.9% | $5.46 | 8.9% | 83 | 150.5 | 0.55× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=m4a1s)

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [deed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/deed) $13.99 $5.48 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [-=|FaLCoN|=-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%3D%7CFaLCoN%7C%3D-) $13.99 $7.03 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [LABUX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LABUX) $13.99 $7.12 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [borabora](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/borabora) $13.99 $6.34 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [ᵍiτⱥήiʞ𐍉😚](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E1%B5%8Di%CF%84%E2%B1%A5%CE%AEi%CA%9E%F0%90%8D%89%F0%9F%98%9A) $13.99 $7.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Moek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Moek) $13.99 $6.33 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [Moek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Moek) $13.99 $7.13 0.51x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [Moek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Moek) $13.99 $7.13 0.51x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) [Moek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Moek) $13.99 $19.20 1.37x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [Force](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Force) $13.99 $5.46 0.39x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.88% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.70% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.97% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.32% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.36% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.42% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.85% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.76% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.87% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.13% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% classified 32.9% restricted 1.6% epic 0.0% red 0.4% industrial 5.0% pink 26.5% #8847ff 16.0% mil spec 16.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.88 on average: an expected loss of $26.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt