---
title: "M4A4 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.08% from 31 items with odds, observed 78.94% over 756 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · M4A4

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 74.08% · EV $10.36 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.94% · 756 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 81.62% ±5.39 299 openings

30 days · 78.94% ±3.54 756 openings

since tracking started · 78.94% ±3.54 756 openings

44.0% 75.0% 106.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.06% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.40% – 82.48%, 756 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=24h) | 10 | 74.87% ±30.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=7d) | 299 | 81.62% ±5.39 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4) | 756 | 78.94% ±3.54 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/m4a4?window=all) | 756 | 78.94% ±3.54 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128,203 | $392 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59,612 | $243 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 35,424 | $194 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 13,612 | $135 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 7,078 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 2,934 | $79.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,835 | $78.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,265 | $72.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 2,256 | $72.45 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,204 | $58.50 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 310 | $36.72 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $32.29 | 1.5% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 206 | $31.82 | 1.5% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $31.37 | 1.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $31.03 | 1.6% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $30.66 | 1.6% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $29.76 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $28.41 | 1.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $27.46 | 1.9% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $17.82 | 4.0% | 31 | 17.8 | 1.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $17.55 | 4.1% | 29 | 18.5 | 1.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $16.70 | 4.4% | 19 | 20.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $15.10 | 5.1% | 45 | 26.7 | 1.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $13.35 | 6.0% | 48 | 35.5 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.02 | 6.8% | 59 | 44.7 | 1.32× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.87 | 6.9% | 56 | 45.9 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $9.28 | 8.7% | 0 | 73.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 10.4% | $8.89 | 8.9% | 0 | 78.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 12.2% | $7.99 | 9.4% | 158 | 92.6 | 1.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 16.1% | $6.34 | 9.9% | 0 | 122.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 18.8% | $5.18 | 9.4% | 241 | 142.8 | 1.69× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=m4a4)

[M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) [WHO&SOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/WHO%26SOS) $13.99 $13.35 0.95x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [DENNER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DENNER) $13.99 $7.98 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [ᵍiτⱥήiʞ𐍉😚](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E1%B5%8Di%CF%84%E2%B1%A5%CE%AEi%CA%9E%F0%90%8D%89%F0%9F%98%9A) $13.99 $17.32 1.24x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $13.99 $7.69 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $13.99 $5.20 0.37x 2026-11-11 08:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [Obito](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Obito) $13.99 $7.66 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:32 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [Obito](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Obito) $13.99 $12.02 0.86x 2026-11-11 06:32 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [dust2 pick = troll game](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dust2%20pick%20%3D%20troll%20game) $13.99 $12.12 0.87x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [Desire\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desire*-5754979) $13.99 $7.94 0.57x 2026-11-10 18:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) [MorBat144](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MorBat144) $13.99 $13.46 0.96x 2026-11-10 16:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.08% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.88% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.71% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.97% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.29% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.37% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.75% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.12% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.92% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.92% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #8847ff 0.0% covert 1.3% red 0.6% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 14.4% restricted 19.6% Ancient 1.8% mil spec 0.5% violet 2.3% Rare 2.8% pink 3.5% rare 4.7% Uncommon 9.7% industrial 26.5% Mythical 12.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.08 on average: an expected loss of $25.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt