---
title: "MamaSwiggi case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MamaSwiggi ($2.19) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.81% from 38 items with odds, observed 75.62% over 2,558 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [MamaSwiggi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · MamaSwiggi

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=all)

Price · $2.19

Advertised RTP · 73.81% · EV $1.62 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.62% · 2,558 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.94% ±10.76 283 openings

7 days · 76.21% ±4.00 2,100 openings

30 days · 75.62% ±3.64 2,558 openings

since tracking started · 75.62% ±3.64 2,558 openings

66.5% 78.0% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=24h) | 283 | 77.94% ±10.8 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=7d) | 2,100 | 76.21% ±4.00 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi) | 2,558 | 75.62% ±3.64 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mamaswiggi?window=all) | 2,558 | 75.62% ±3.64 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 193,763 | $241 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188,594 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186,880 | $186 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 179,961 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 178,799 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 153,809 | $115 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 146,031 | $107 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 133,662 | $96.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 132,319 | $96.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 129,469 | $94.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 87,785 | $70.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 65,619 | $60.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 1 in 55,423 | $55.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26,606 | $41.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 24,956 | $40.08 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 24,684 | $39.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,440 | $39.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 19,883 | $36.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 19,716 | $36.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 6,029 | $24.08 | 0.2% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,444 | $19.86 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 1,880 | $16.15 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,641 | $15.42 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 789 | $12.01 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 783 | $11.98 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 706 | $11.56 | 1.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 425 | $9.71 | 1.4% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $6.41 | 3.0% | 32 | 19.6 | 1.64× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $5.12 | 4.4% | 29 | 35.9 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $4.73 | 5.1% | 15 | 44.2 | 0.34× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $4.56 | 5.4% | 46 | 48.6 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.53 | 7.8% | 108 | 91.2 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.39 | 8.2% | 76 | 100.4 | 0.76× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 12.8% | $1.74 | 13.8% | 316 | 328.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 17.9% | $1.12 | 12.4% | 436 | 459.1 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 18.1% | $1.10 | 12.3% | 422 | 462.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 18.6% | $0.92 | 10.6% | 510 | 474.8 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 18.5% | $0.84 | 9.6% | 430 | 472.5 | 0.91× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mamaswiggi)

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [Консультант](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82) $2.19 $0.92 0.42x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [gggdanli9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gggdanli9) $2.19 $0.83 0.38x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [gggdanli9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gggdanli9) $2.19 $0.92 0.42x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) [shigeko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shigeko) $2.19 $1.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [shigeko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shigeko) $2.19 $3.38 1.54x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [Kairos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kairos) $2.19 $6.38 2.91x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Kairos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kairos) $2.19 $0.83 0.38x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [GabimaRU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GabimaRU) $2.19 $5.32 2.43x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) [static-ptz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/static-ptz) $2.19 $1.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) [static-ptz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/static-ptz) $2.19 $1.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.19 | 73.81% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 73.66% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.52% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.47% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.78% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 74.10% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.07% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.20% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.17% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.19% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 74.64% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 74.62% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.58% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.57% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.56% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.59% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.62% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.68% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.61% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.72% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 74.96% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 75.08% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.93% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.76% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.77% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.71% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 74.70% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 6.0% sunny 0.0% Extraordinary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 5.4% #d32ee6 0.1% pink 0.8% violet 1.9% #8847ff 49.5% Mythical 17.9% restricted 18.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.81 on average: an expected loss of $26.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt