---
title: "MarweX case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MarweX ($15.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.67% from 43 items with odds, observed 75.18% over 548 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [MarweX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · MarweX

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=all)

Price · $15.99

Advertised RTP · 74.67% · EV $11.94 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.18% · 548 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 45 openings · below min

7 days · 75.50% ±5.05 482 openings

30 days · 75.18% ±4.70 548 openings

since tracking started · 75.18% ±4.70 548 openings

60.5% 80.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=24h) | 45 | 79.85% ±18.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=7d) | 482 | 75.50% ±5.05 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex) | 548 | 75.18% ±4.70 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/marwex?window=all) | 548 | 75.18% ±4.70 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 548 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 149,923 | $569 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 109,601 | $421 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 54,086 | $283 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 32,038 | $227 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,459 | $208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 22,830 | $199 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 12,905 | $162 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,770 | $122 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 5,496 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,907 | $115 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,717 | $114 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 4,269 | $110 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,002 | $97.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,699 | $93.88 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 2,690 | $93.78 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,493 | $76.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 853 | $63.34 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $61.12 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 624 | $56.89 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 515 | $53.24 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $52.68 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 475 | $51.77 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $39.83 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $39.83 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $39.17 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $38.32 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $38.24 | 1.6% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.46× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $38.14 | 1.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 191 | $37.55 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $33.46 | 2.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $32.71 | 2.1% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $28.19 | 2.7% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $24.80 | 3.3% | 4 | 8.8 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $24.07 | 3.5% | 4 | 9.5 | 0.42× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $16.13 | 6.0% | 25 | 24.3 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $12.50 | 7.6% | 5 | 39.7 | 0.13× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $12.23 | 7.7% | 46 | 41.2 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $11.97 | 7.8% | 65 | 42.7 | 1.52× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $11.47 | 8.0% | 45 | 45.7 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $11.22 | 8.1% | 62 | 47.3 | 1.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 14.4% | $6.84 | 8.3% | 148 | 78.9 | 1.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 15.4% | $5.74 | 7.4% | 14 | 84.4 | 0.17× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 15.6% | $5.46 | 7.1% | 18 | 85.2 | 0.21× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=marwex)

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $15.99 $11.74 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $38.89 2.43x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $38.89 2.43x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $5.47 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $11.79 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $5.47 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $15.99 $5.47 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [КАПУСТА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%9F%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%90) $15.99 $5.47 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [reactoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/reactoR) $15.99 $12.30 0.77x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [reactoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/reactoR) $15.99 $5.71 0.36x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $15.99 | 74.67% | 43 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.48% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.76% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $15.99 | 75.09% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.10% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.08% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.15% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.21% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.56% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.68% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $15.99 | 76.02% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $15.99 | 76.03% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.93% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.72% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.70% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $15.99 | 75.72% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $15.99 | 75.69% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.3% epic 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 49.8% extraordinary 1.7% red 0.1% #ffd700 0.2% gold 0.5% Ancient 0.5% #d32ee6 19.8% pink 8.6% #8847ff 14.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.67 on average: an expected loss of $25.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt