---
title: "Chá mate case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chá mate ($0.40) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 63.37% from 6 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Chá mate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Chá mate

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 63.37% · EV $0.25 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 22.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 118 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mate?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-field-tested) | 1 in 9,296 | $104 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 783 | $19.25 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 486 | $16.23 | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $11.90 | 23.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Serpent charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-serpent) | 1 in 139 | $10.54 | 30.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 98.4% | $0.05 | 19.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mate)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 63.37% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 63.42% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 63.35% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 63.43% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 63.90% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 63.85% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 63.77% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 63.86% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 63.87% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 64.26% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 64.25% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 64.24% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 64.25% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 64.25% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 64.21% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.27% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.23% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.24% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.23% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.27% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 64.25% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 64.31% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 64.55% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 64.56% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 64.58% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 64.32% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 64.31% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 64.34% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 64.33% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.40 | 64.29% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% classified 0.3% #d32ee6 0.5% red 0.7% #5e98d9 98.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 63.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $63.37 on average: an expected loss of $36.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt