---
title: "McLaren case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "McLaren ($1.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.01% from 30 items with odds, observed 80.09% over 3,391 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [McLaren](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · McLaren

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 78.01% · EV $1.16 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.09% · 3,391 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.15% ±4.20 976 openings

7 days · 80.09% ±2.24 3,391 openings

30 days · 80.09% ±2.24 3,391 openings

since tracking started · 80.09% ±2.24 3,391 openings

72.5% 77.8% 83.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=24h) | 976 | 77.15% ±4.20 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=7d) | 3,391 | 80.09% ±2.24 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1) | 3,391 | 80.09% ±2.24 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mclarenf1?window=all) | 3,391 | 80.09% ±2.24 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,749 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,495 | $39.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 8,958 | $30.59 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eldritch charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eldritch) | 1 in 8,412 | $26.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 7,814 | $22.82 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 6,199 | $17.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,195 | $15.29 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 4,189 | $13.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,729 | $10.72 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 2,063 | $9.47 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 1,802 | $8.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 1,565 | $8.44 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.09× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 777 | $6.45 | 0.7% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 416 | $5.12 | 1.1% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 165 | $3.65 | 1.9% | 21 | 22.7 | 0.93× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $2.74 | 3.0% | 53 | 48.0 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $2.70 | 3.1% | 41 | 49.5 | 0.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $2.45 | 3.6% | 47 | 63.4 | 0.74× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.08 | 4.4% | 91 | 92.8 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $2.02 | 4.6% | 85 | 98.7 | 0.86× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.66 | 5.7% | 122 | 149.6 | 0.82× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.41 | 6.4% | 178 | 198.9 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.32 | 6.7% | 47 | 221.5 | 0.21× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.19 | 7.1% | 264 | 260.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.10 | 7.2% | 236 | 286.1 | 0.82× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.99 | 7.3% | 318 | 322.1 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.92 | 7.3% | 349 | 345.2 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.84 | 7.1% | 370 | 366.9 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.80 | 7.0% | 391 | 378.8 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.69 | 6.4% | 173 | 405.6 | 0.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.62 | 5.9% | 386 | 413.8 | 0.93× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mclarenf1)

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) [- quick ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%20quick%20%E3%83%84) $1.49 $0.88 0.59x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [- quick ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%20quick%20%E3%83%84) $1.49 $1.58 1.06x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [Грусдь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%D0%B4%D1%8C) $1.49 $0.80 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [Инжирнер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%98%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $1.49 $0.80 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [SaiKy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SaiKy) $1.49 $0.62 0.42x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) [SaiKy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SaiKy) $1.49 $1.16 0.78x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) [R34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/R34) $1.49 $1.16 0.78x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [EBASHiiiU\_KAK\_4iter](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/EBASHiiiU_KAK_4iter) $1.49 $0.84 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [Miracle1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Miracle1) $1.49 $0.62 0.42x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) [Miracle1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Miracle1) $1.49 $1.37 0.92x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.49 | 78.01% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.49 | 77.78% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.70% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.59% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.94% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.49 | 78.23% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.24% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.24% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.28% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.37% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.49 | 78.80% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.49 | 78.78% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.49 | 78.81% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.49 | 78.76% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.3% rare 0.0% pink 0.0% #d32ee6 0.1% Legendary 0.8% restricted 20.3% #8847ff 24.0% violet 37.7% Restricted 5.9% mil spec 10.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.01 on average: an expected loss of $21.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt