---
title: "Mercedes case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mercedes ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.95% from 30 items with odds, observed 72.30% over 11.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Mercedes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Mercedes

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=all)

Price · $2.09

Advertised RTP · 73.95% · EV $1.55 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.30% · 11.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70.76% ±3.84 3,028 openings

7 days · 72.30% ±1.96 11.6K openings

30 days · 72.30% ±1.96 11.6K openings

since tracking started · 72.30% ±1.96 11.6K openings

66.5% 71.0% 75.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=24h) | 3,028 | 70.76% ±3.84 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=7d) | 11.6K | 72.30% ±1.96 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1) | 11.6K | 72.30% ±1.96 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mercedesf1?window=all) | 11.6K | 72.30% ±1.96 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 9,982 | $156 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,897 | $87.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 9,637 | $57.04 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 9,509 | $51.34 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 9,052 | $40.55 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 7,966 | $30.12 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 7,488 | $27.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $19.76 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 3,649 | $15.85 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 3,605 | $15.74 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,122 | $12.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,396 | $10.35 | 0.5% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 599 | $7.53 | 0.8% | 0 | 21.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 378 | $6.37 | 1.1% | 9 | 33.9 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $5.85 | 1.3% | 40 | 42.8 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $4.79 | 1.8% | 74 | 74.4 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $4.15 | 2.3% | 100 | 109.7 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $3.63 | 2.9% | 154 | 157.4 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $2.58 | 4.8% | 222 | 369.4 | 0.60× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.52 | 5.0% | 233 | 389.4 | 0.60× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $2.50 | 5.0% | 437 | 394.8 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.30 | 5.6% | 53 | 478.8 | 0.11× |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.10 | 6.2% | 520 | 582.8 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.71 | 7.5% | 789 | 871.8 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.44 | 8.4% | 1,048 | 1153.1 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.41 | 8.4% | 1,045 | 1180.3 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 12.1% | $1.13 | 8.8% | 1,336 | 1550.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 12.5% | $1.10 | 8.9% | 1,294 | 1595.0 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 14.7% | $0.87 | 8.3% | 1,555 | 1888.4 | 0.82× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 14.7% | $0.87 | 8.3% | 1,574 | 1882.5 | 0.84× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) [Turbo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Turbo) $2.09 $156 74.63x 2026-11-10 21:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mercedesf1)

[Nova | Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-well-worn) [Пинки Пай](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B8%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%B9) $2.09 $2.08 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) [Пинки Пай](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B8%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%B9) $2.09 $2.55 1.22x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Пинки Пай](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B8%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%B9) $2.09 $1.70 0.81x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC

[Nova | Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-well-worn) [Пинки Пай](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B8%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%B9) $2.09 $2.08 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [Vipco0n.exe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vipco0n.exe) $2.09 $3.20 1.53x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) [Дедушка с Татуировкой Батона](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D1%81%20%D0%A2%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%83%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0) $2.09 $1.38 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) [PROFIMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROFIMAN) $2.09 $1.05 0.50x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) [deathking](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/deathking) $2.09 $1.38 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) [deathking](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/deathking) $2.09 $1.05 0.50x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [Ghost](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ghost) $2.09 $0.83 0.40x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.09 | 73.95% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 73.75% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.62% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.55% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.88% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 74.18% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.12% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.23% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.25% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.31% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 74.69% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 74.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 74.65% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% Rare 0.1% Industrial Grade 0.2% pink 0.8% rare 0.3% Legendary 0.9% restricted 23.0% violet 20.5% #8847ff 24.5% Mythical 29.4% best hit $156 (74.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.95 on average: an expected loss of $26.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt