---
title: "Militia case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Militia ($8.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.84% from 11 items with odds, observed 160.01% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Militia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Militia

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=all)

Price · $8.49

Advertised RTP · 76.84% · EV $6.52 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 160.01% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

44.5% 160.0% 275.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=7d) | 2 | 160.01% ±114.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia) | 2 | 160.01% ±114.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/militia?window=all) | 2 | 160.01% ±114.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 700 | $60.50 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $36.72 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $26.69 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $22.54 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $21.71 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $18.82 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 10.3% | $11.59 | 18.3% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 22.1% | $6.26 | 21.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-grassland-minimal-wear) | 24.3% | $3.70 | 13.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) | 17.7% | $2.00 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 14.9% | $1.61 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=militia)

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) [ZlobinLIVE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ZlobinLIVE) $8.49 $13.39 1.58x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $8.49 $13.78 1.62x 2026-11-05 09:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $8.49 | 76.84% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $8.49 | 76.66% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.45% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.49% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.74% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $8.49 | 77.08% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.06% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.14% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.19% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $8.49 | 77.66% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.64% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.55% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.70% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $8.49 | 78.04% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $8.49 | 78.03% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.96% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.66% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.71% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.74% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $8.49 | 77.76% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Mil Spec Grade 0.1% restricted 0.6% Mil Spec 1.5% mil spec 8.4% classified 10.3% industrial 22.1% consumer 24.3% Consumer Grade 32.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.84 on average: an expected loss of $23.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt