--- title: "Mirage case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirage ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.33% from 15 items with odds, observed 107.04% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage rendered: 2026-11-11T17:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Mirage A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=all) Price · $10.99 Advertised RTP · 73.33% · EV $8.06 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.04% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 48.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 111.8% 224.0% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=7d) | 1 | 101.64% ±121.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage) | 5 | 107.04% ±51.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mirage?window=all) | 5 | 107.04% ±51.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,089 | $212 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $18.91 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.09 | 10.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $15.56 | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Negev \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.58 | 11.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.35 | 11.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $13.30 | 11.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $12.35 | 12.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $11.21 | 12.9% | 4 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.05 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.03 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.97 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.66 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.60 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P90 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.59 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mirage) [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) [KpL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/KpL) $10.99 $11.17 1.02x 2026-11-08 17:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 73.33% | 15 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 73.14% | 15 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 72.95% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 72.95% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 73.23% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 73.56% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.58% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.55% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.62% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.68% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 74.06% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 74.04% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.07% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.06% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.01% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.14% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 74.46% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 74.47% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.39% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.18% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.17% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 74.19% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 8.7% industrial 33.2% #8847ff 9.3% Common 23.6% consumer 25.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.33 on average: an expected loss of $26.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt