---
title: "CS2 Mirage case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Mirage ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.86% from 36 items with odds, observed 77.39% over 246 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Mirage

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 73.86% · EV $1.03 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.39% · 246 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 78.00% ±15.32 205 openings

30 days · 77.39% ±13.97 246 openings

since tracking started · 77.39% ±13.97 246 openings

62.0% 78.0% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=7d) | 205 | 78.00% ±15.3 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2) | 246 | 77.39% ±14.0 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/miragecs2?window=all) | 246 | 77.39% ±14.0 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 196,110 | $241 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153,152 | $96.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 152,062 | $96.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,864 | $70.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 47,308 | $44.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21,000 | $31.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 17,915 | $30.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 15,261 | $28.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,494 | $23.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,522 | $19.86 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 5,410 | $19.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 5,208 | $19.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,991 | $16.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 2,861 | $15.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $12.26 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,314 | $12.14 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,274 | $12.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,246 | $11.92 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 1,134 | $11.55 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $8.94 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 458 | $8.44 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $6.41 | 3.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.56× |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $5.64 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $4.39 | 5.6% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.70 | 10.8% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.34 | 12.4% | 12 | 13.4 | 0.90× |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.02 | 13.7% | 28 | 17.1 | 1.63× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 13.2% | $0.87 | 11.2% | 1 | 32.5 | 0.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 13.0% | $0.75 | 9.5% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.40 | 3.6% | 10 | 23.0 | 0.43× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.39 | 3.4% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.37 | 3.1% | 13 | 21.7 | 0.60× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.36 | 3.1% | 32 | 21.6 | 1.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.34 | 2.8% | 32 | 20.6 | 1.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.33 | 2.6% | 24 | 19.8 | 1.21× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=miragecs2)

[Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.30 0.22x 2026-11-08 09:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.39 0.28x 2026-11-08 09:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.79 0.57x 2026-11-08 09:31 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.34 0.24x 2026-11-08 09:30 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.30 0.22x 2026-11-08 09:30 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.79 0.57x 2026-11-08 09:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.35 0.25x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.34 0.24x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Button Masher (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-well-worn) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.37 0.26x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Davushki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Davushki) $1.39 $0.35 0.25x 2026-11-08 09:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 73.86% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.57% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.42% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.47% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.82% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.10% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.15% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.11% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.15% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.16% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.57% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.61% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.60% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.55% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.73% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.55% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 75.04% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 75.06% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.97% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.74% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 1.7% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 8.8% #d32ee6 0.4% pink 0.5% consumer 0.7% restricted 17.1% #8847ff 21.6% #4b69ff 14.5% blue 9.4% violet 25.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.86 on average: an expected loss of $26.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt