---
title: "Missing Link Charms case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Missing Link Charms ($0.26) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.82% from 17 items with odds, observed 90.37% over 1,469 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Missing Link Charms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Missing Link Charms

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=all)

Price · $0.26

Advertised RTP · 75.82% · EV $0.20 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.37% · 1,469 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.83% ±15.38 169 openings

7 days · 90.59% ±5.77 1,162 openings

30 days · 90.37% ±5.10 1,469 openings

since tracking started · 90.37% ±5.10 1,469 openings

75.0% 91.0% 107.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.49% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.27% – 95.47%, 1,469 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=24h) | 169 | 90.83% ±15.4 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=7d) | 1,162 | 90.59% ±5.77 | +4.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms) | 1,469 | 90.37% ±5.10 | +5.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms?window=all) | 1,469 | 90.37% ±5.10 | +5.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,473 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 9,922 | $18.69 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 8,782 | $7.18 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 6,796 | $4.77 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 1,535 | $2.09 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 469 | $1.34 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 203 | $0.99 | 2.5% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.52× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 111 | $0.79 | 3.6% | 26 | 13.3 | 1.95× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 63 | $0.63 | 5.1% | 44 | 23.5 | 1.87× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 41 | $0.53 | 6.5% | 57 | 35.7 | 1.60× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 39 | $0.52 | 6.8% | 65 | 38.1 | 1.70× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 12.0% | 181 | 121.5 | 1.49× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 13.6% | $0.17 | 11.6% | 182 | 199.8 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 14.1% | $0.15 | 10.7% | 190 | 207.3 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 14.1% | $0.15 | 10.5% | 188 | 208.2 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 14.2% | $0.14 | 10.3% | 175 | 209.0 | 0.84× |
| [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 14.2% | $0.14 | 10.1% | 175 | 209.6 | 0.83× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 13.2% | $0.09 | 6.3% | 174 | 195.0 | 0.89× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=missinglinkcharms)

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.26 $0.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC

[Charm | Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) [Nobbyr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Nobbyr) $0.26 $0.15 0.58x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.29 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.16 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.16 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.14 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [Sigaretu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sigaretu) $0.26 $0.15 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.26 | 75.82% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.26 | 75.57% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.26 | 75.40% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.26 | 75.38% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.26 | 75.76% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.26 | 76.00% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.26 | 76.05% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.26 | 76.00% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.26 | 76.03% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.26 | 76.13% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.26 | 76.55% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.26 | 76.52% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.26 | 76.50% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.26 | 76.55% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.26 | 76.54% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.26 | 76.47% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.51% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.60% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.58% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.56% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.60% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 76.55% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.26 | 76.70% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.26 | 76.93% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.26 | 76.85% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.26 | 76.93% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.26 | 76.57% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.26 | 76.66% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.26 | 76.70% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.26 | 76.69% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% rare 0.0% uncommon 62.3% #d32ce6 0.2% #8847ff 9.6% #4b69ff 27.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.82 on average: an expected loss of $24.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt