---
title: "Missing Link Charms 2 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Missing Link Charms 2 ($0.40) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.99% from 21 items with odds, observed 101.34% over 1,042 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Missing Link Charms 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Missing Link Charms 2

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 74.99% · EV $0.30 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.34% · 1,042 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 39 openings · below min

7 days · 103.51% ±8.54 823 openings

30 days · 101.34% ±7.59 1,042 openings

since tracking started · 101.34% ±7.59 1,042 openings

48.5% 84.5% 120.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.75% – 108.93%, 1,042 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=24h) | 39 | 84.47% ±35.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=7d) | 823 | 103.51% ±8.54 | +6.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2) | 1,042 | 101.34% ±7.59 | +6.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/missinglinkcharms2?window=all) | 1,042 | 101.34% ±7.59 | +6.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,042 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eldritch charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eldritch) | 1 in 9,837 | $26.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Serpent charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-serpent) | 1 in 7,980 | $10.54 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Happy charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-happy) | 1 in 2,937 | $4.96 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Hero charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-hero) | 1 in 1,757 | $3.96 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Charm \| Piñatita charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinatita) | 1 in 879 | $3.02 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.53× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Chirp charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-chirp) | 1 in 337 | $2.12 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 201 | $1.76 | 2.9% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.54× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 160 | $1.62 | 3.4% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Goop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-goop) | 1 in 160 | $1.61 | 3.4% | 10 | 6.5 | 1.54× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Prick charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-prick) | 1 in 108 | $1.39 | 4.3% | 20 | 9.7 | 2.07× |
| [Charm \| Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) | 1 in 28 | $0.80 | 9.4% | 81 | 36.7 | 2.21× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) | 1 in 18 | $0.63 | 11.5% | 76 | 57.0 | 1.33× |
| [Charm \| Hang Loose charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hang-loose) | 1 in 10 | $0.40 | 13.2% | 194 | 103.3 | 1.88× |
| [Charm \| Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) | 11.9% | $0.27 | 10.6% | 110 | 123.9 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cackle charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cackle) | 11.9% | $0.24 | 9.5% | 79 | 124.2 | 0.64× |
| [Charm \| Dead Weight charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dead-weight) | 11.8% | $0.22 | 8.8% | 103 | 123.3 | 0.84× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Tusk charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-tusk) | 11.0% | $0.18 | 6.5% | 82 | 114.6 | 0.72× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Baller charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-baller) | 1 in 12 | $0.12 | 3.4% | 59 | 89.9 | 0.66× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Curse charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-curse) | 1 in 13 | $0.10 | 2.7% | 63 | 81.8 | 0.77× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Smokey charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-smokey) | 1 in 13 | $0.10 | 2.5% | 79 | 78.7 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) | 1 in 14 | $0.09 | 2.2% | 60 | 75.3 | 0.80× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Charm | Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $0.40 $21.64 54.10x 2026-11-09 08:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=missinglinkcharms2)

[Charm | Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) [вечный](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.40 $0.64 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Charm | Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) [Jimmy Dristall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Jimmy%20Dristall) $0.40 $0.80 2.00x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Charm | Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) [SVAROG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SVAROG) $0.40 $0.27 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[Charm | Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) [SVAROG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SVAROG) $0.40 $0.27 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Charm | Dead Weight charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dead-weight) [SVAROG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SVAROG) $0.40 $0.23 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) [SVAROG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SVAROG) $0.40 $0.09 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cackle charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cackle) [De’Lais](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/De%E2%80%99Lais) $0.40 $0.18 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Charm | Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) [🗿⃤⃢🍷⛧ 𝙰𝙻𝚂K0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%97%BF%E2%83%A4%E2%83%A2%F0%9F%8D%B7%E2%9B%A7%20%F0%9D%99%B0%F0%9D%99%BB%F0%9D%9A%82K0) $0.40 $0.27 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cackle charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cackle) [🗿⃤⃢🍷⛧ 𝙰𝙻𝚂K0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%97%BF%E2%83%A4%E2%83%A2%F0%9F%8D%B7%E2%9B%A7%20%F0%9D%99%B0%F0%9D%99%BB%F0%9D%9A%82K0) $0.40 $0.18 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Baller charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-baller) [🗿⃤⃢🍷⛧ 𝙰𝙻𝚂K0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%97%BF%E2%83%A4%E2%83%A2%F0%9F%8D%B7%E2%9B%A7%20%F0%9D%99%B0%F0%9D%99%BB%F0%9D%9A%82K0) $0.40 $0.12 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 74.99% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 74.88% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 74.85% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 75.15% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 75.42% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.46% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.35% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.49% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.52% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 75.96% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 75.97% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 76.02% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.95% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.95% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.02% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.98% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.01% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 76.41% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 76.38% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.28% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 75.99% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.11% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 76.12% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.40 | 75.99% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% #d32ce6 1.4% violet 0.5% #8847ff 14.7% restricted 5.5% #4b69ff 66.1% Rare 11.8% best hit $21.64 (54.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.99 on average: an expected loss of $25.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt