---
title: "Moon case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Moon ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.16% from 48 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Moon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Moon

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 76.16% · EV $5.17 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/moon2?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 179,875 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 82,936 | $199 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,352 | $184 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 66,510 | $177 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61,677 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57,421 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 54,940 | $162 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 36,363 | $135 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,978 | $122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24,191 | $115 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,144 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 21,555 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 21,305 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 17,103 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,894 | $93.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 8,095 | $77.59 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,831 | $76.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,599 | $68.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,238 | $56.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 1 in 3,107 | $55.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,817 | $53.93 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,629 | $52.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,609 | $44.54 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 1,415 | $42.63 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 1,189 | $40.17 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,160 | $39.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,029 | $38.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 982 | $37.63 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 704 | $33.57 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 698 | $33.46 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 545 | $30.73 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 531 | $30.45 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 392 | $27.41 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $17.70 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $17.39 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $12.23 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $11.97 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $11.83 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $11.63 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $10.15 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.52 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 10.1% | $5.67 | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 12.2% | $4.78 | 11.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 15.5% | $3.06 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 15.5% | $2.74 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 10.4% | $1.20 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.02 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.68 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=moon2)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.16% | 48 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.01% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.99% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.29% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.60% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.64% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.60% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.68% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.74% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 77.11% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.14% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.08% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.20% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.57% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.58% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.48% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.26% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.26% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% classified 23.2% extraordinary 0.1% pink 0.1% mil spec 0.1% red 0.2% Ancient 0.3% Legendary 2.6% restricted 43.7% violet 22.6% Mythical 6.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.16 on average: an expected loss of $23.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt