---
title: "Muse Charm case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Muse Charm ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.96% from 29 items with odds, observed 82.60% over 8,291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Muse Charm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Muse Charm

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 75.96% · EV $2.57 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.60% · 8,291 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.46% ±4.67 1,139 openings

7 days · 82.03% ±1.85 7,275 openings

30 days · 82.60% ±1.73 8,291 openings

since tracking started · 82.60% ±1.73 8,291 openings

75.0% 80.5% 86.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.86% – 84.33%, 8,291 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=24h) | 1,139 | 80.46% ±4.67 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=7d) | 7,275 | 82.03% ±1.85 | +5.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm) | 8,291 | 82.60% ±1.73 | +6.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/musecharm?window=all) | 8,291 | 82.60% ±1.73 | +6.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,295 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-field-tested) | 1 in 9,187 | $84.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-well-worn) | 1 in 9,118 | $81.94 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,259 | $63.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,337 | $52.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 7,186 | $51.36 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [Charm \| 8 Ball IGL charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-8-ball-igl) | 1 in 4,241 | $33.87 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.53× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 4,152 | $33.46 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,229 | $19.36 | 0.6% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.48× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 1,072 | $18.37 | 0.7% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 734 | $15.93 | 0.8% | 25 | 11.3 | 2.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 689 | $15.56 | 0.9% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 398 | $12.73 | 1.2% | 20 | 20.9 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 395 | $12.70 | 1.2% | 37 | 21.0 | 1.76× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 338 | $12.01 | 1.4% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.77× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $9.63 | 2.0% | 57 | 44.9 | 1.27× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $8.22 | 2.7% | 30 | 68.9 | 0.44× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $6.92 | 3.5% | 152 | 108.5 | 1.40× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $6.41 | 3.9% | 89 | 131.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $6.32 | 4.0% | 27 | 136.3 | 0.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $5.18 | 5.3% | 46 | 220.4 | 0.21× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.23 | 6.8% | 504 | 343.0 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.77 | 7.6% | 520 | 431.1 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.44 | 8.2% | 653 | 509.8 | 1.28× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.72 | 9.3% | 516 | 729.4 | 0.71× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 12.4% | $1.88 | 9.1% | 187 | 1029.3 | 0.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 12.9% | $1.75 | 8.7% | 563 | 1066.0 | 0.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 13.6% | $1.36 | 7.2% | 0 | 1127.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 13.5% | $1.20 | 6.3% | 835 | 1117.2 | 0.75× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 13.5% | $1.20 | 6.3% | 859 | 1117.5 | 0.77× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=musecharm)

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [🐻❤Sangirqa❤🐻](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%90%BB%E2%9D%A4Sangirqa%E2%9D%A4%F0%9F%90%BB) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [ISIYON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ISIYON) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $3.39 $2.58 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [Kamocka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kamocka) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $3.39 $4.23 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) [Mnemosyne](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mnemosyne) $3.39 $3.47 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [Mnemosyne](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mnemosyne) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Nik\_Danya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Nik_Danya) $3.39 $4.23 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [Nik\_Danya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Nik_Danya) $3.39 $2.42 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 75.96% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.80% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.80% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.08% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.43% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.44% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.48% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.55% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.91% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.90% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.37% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.38% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.27% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.94% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 4.5% pink 2.2% #d32ee6 0.3% #d32ce6 0.5% mil spec 0.8% #8847ff 1.3% #4b69ff 1.6% Legendary 2.7% Mythical 5.2% Classified 6.1% restricted 22.3% violet 25.9% Rare 12.9% Industrial Grade 13.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.96 on average: an expected loss of $24.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt