---
title: "Грибная поляна case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Грибная поляна ($0.26) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.87% from 29 items with odds, observed 95.96% over 12.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Грибная поляна](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Грибная поляна

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=all)

Price · $0.26

Advertised RTP · 77.87% · EV $0.20 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.96% · 12.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.53% ±4.40 1,277 openings

7 days · 96.46% ±1.54 10.4K openings

30 days · 95.96% ±1.40 12.6K openings

since tracking started · 95.96% ±1.40 12.6K openings

77.0% 88.3% 99.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.58% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.56% – 97.36%, 12,571 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=24h) | 1,277 | 94.53% ±4.40 | +7.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=7d) | 10.4K | 96.46% ±1.54 | +22.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade) | 12.6K | 95.96% ±1.40 | +24.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/mushroomglade?window=all) | 12.6K | 95.96% ±1.40 | +24.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 9,676 | $8.56 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,592 | $7.90 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 9,110 | $5.99 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 8,695 | $5.19 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 8,193 | $4.56 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 7,019 | $3.67 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,343 | $2.52 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 3,742 | $2.32 | 0.3% | 10 | 3.4 | 2.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) | 1 in 3,019 | $2.08 | 0.3% | 14 | 4.2 | 3.35× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,604 | $1.94 | 0.4% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 2,214 | $1.80 | 0.4% | 14 | 5.7 | 2.46× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 1,740 | $1.63 | 0.5% | 14 | 7.2 | 1.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $1.04 | 1.0% | 57 | 24.0 | 2.38× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 508 | $1.02 | 1.0% | 36 | 24.8 | 1.45× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 321 | $0.87 | 1.3% | 69 | 39.3 | 1.76× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 239 | $0.78 | 1.6% | 128 | 52.7 | 2.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $0.62 | 2.3% | 164 | 96.6 | 1.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.45 | 4.0% | 497 | 230.7 | 2.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.41 | 4.5% | 521 | 278.6 | 1.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.35 | 5.7% | 785 | 419.4 | 1.87× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.34 | 5.8% | 147 | 431.8 | 0.34× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.30 | 6.8% | 737 | 579.2 | 1.27× |
| [P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.24 | 8.2% | 842 | 856.7 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 9.0% | 252 | 1096.0 | 0.23× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.18 | 9.5% | 825 | 1338.5 | 0.62× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) | 13.2% | $0.14 | 9.4% | 1,987 | 1658.4 | 1.20× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 13.6% | $0.14 | 9.3% | 2,350 | 1719.7 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 14.2% | $0.13 | 9.0% | 0 | 1790.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 15.3% | $0.09 | 7.1% | 1,038 | 1933.5 | 0.54× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=mushroomglade)

[MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) [\[N\]oisy✪Boy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BN%5Doisy%E2%9C%AABoy) $0.26 $0.14 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.18 0.69x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.62 2.38x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.14 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.17 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.18 0.69x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-well-worn) [Ekatrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ekatrin) $0.26 $0.18 0.69x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.26 | 77.87% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.26 | 77.76% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.26 | 77.46% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.26 | 77.53% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.26 | 77.82% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.26 | 78.08% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.26 | 78.13% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.26 | 78.17% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.26 | 78.23% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.26 | 78.27% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.26 | 78.79% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.26 | 78.70% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.26 | 78.69% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.26 | 78.75% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.26 | 78.67% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.26 | 78.74% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.70% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.71% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.68% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.70% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.74% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 78.68% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.26 | 78.68% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.26 | 79.17% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.26 | 79.14% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.26 | 79.04% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.26 | 78.82% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.26 | 78.89% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.26 | 78.87% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.26 | 78.88% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Legendary 0.0% classified 0.1% violet 6.3% restricted 2.2% Mythical 0.0% #8847ff 0.8% blue 21.7% mil spec 6.8% #4b69ff 21.8% milspec 26.0% industrial 14.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.87 on average: an expected loss of $22.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt