--- title: "NeoNoir mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NeoNoir mining ($0.19) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 67.22% from 5 items with odds, observed 18904.34% over 456 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [NeoNoir mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · NeoNoir mining A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=all) Price · $0.19 Advertised RTP · 67.22% · EV $0.13 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 18904.34% · 456 openings, odds method Variance · 113.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 299 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 286 openings · below min 30 days · 456 openings · below min since tracking started · 456 openings · below min 66.5% 9536.0% 19005.5% **Small sample.** 456 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=24h) | 44 | 17921.53% ±309.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=7d) | 286 | 18548.33% ±127.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir) | 456 | 18904.34% ±100.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonoir?window=all) | 456 | 18904.34% ±100.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 457 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $41.07 | 41.8% | 174 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 489 | $30.66 | 49.1% | 230 | 0.9 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) | 48.3% | $0.01 | 5.7% | 0 | 220.8 | 0.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.01 | 2.6% | 0 | 150.7 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-field-tested) | 18.4% | \<$0.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 83.9 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Redico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Redico) $0.19 $44.71 235.3x 2026-11-09 14:41 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.19 $44.66 235.1x 2026-11-10 04:44 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [БиБа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%91%D0%B8%D0%91%D0%B0) $0.19 $44.66 235.1x 2026-11-10 04:30 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.19 $44.63 234.9x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.19 $44.63 234.9x 2026-11-10 06:34 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [CtaRbIй](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CtaRbI%D0%B9) $0.19 $44.38 233.6x 2026-11-08 05:55 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [CtaRbIй](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CtaRbI%D0%B9) $0.19 $44.38 233.6x 2026-11-08 05:52 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [CtaRbIй](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CtaRbI%D0%B9) $0.19 $44.38 233.6x 2026-11-08 05:46 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [CtaRbIй](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CtaRbI%D0%B9) $0.19 $44.38 233.6x 2026-11-08 05:41 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [CtaRbIй](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CtaRbI%D0%B9) $0.19 $44.38 233.6x 2026-11-08 05:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=neonoir) [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [【❖】](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E3%80%90%E2%9D%96%E3%80%91) $0.19 $28.59 150.5x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Толкуйдаа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B0) $0.19 $41.14 216.5x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $30.66 161.4x 2026-11-11 15:31 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $41.09 216.3x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $41.09 216.3x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $41.09 216.3x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $41.09 216.3x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $30.66 161.4x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $30.66 161.4x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [☑️☑️☑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F%E2%98%91) $0.19 $30.66 161.4x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.19 | 67.22% | 5 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.19 | 67.20% | 5 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.08% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.00% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.24% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.19 | 67.45% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.56% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.40% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.48% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.39% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.19 | 67.90% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.19 | 67.89% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.19 | 67.87% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.99% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.11% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.13% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.12% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.03% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.16% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.19 | 68.43% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.19 | 68.29% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.35% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.96% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.22% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.06% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.19 | 68.20% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% Ancient 0.2% #b0c3d9 48.3% consumer 51.3% best hit $44.71 (235.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 67.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $67.22 on average: an expected loss of $32.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt