---
title: "Neon Rider mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Neon Rider mining ($0.21) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 65.34% from 6 items with odds, observed 54768.59% over 289 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Neon Rider mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Neon Rider mining

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=all)

Price · $0.21

Advertised RTP · 65.34% · EV $0.14 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 54768.59% · 289 openings, odds method

Variance · 290.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 1,008 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 36 openings · below min

7 days · 234 openings · below min

30 days · 289 openings · below min

since tracking started · 289 openings · below min

64.5% 27915.5% 55766.5%

**Small sample.** 289 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=24h) | 36 | 55200.53% ±565.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=7d) | 234 | 54781.24% ±220.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider) | 289 | 54768.59% ±201.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/neonrider?window=all) | 289 | 54768.59% ±201.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,008 | $114 | 82.2% | 284 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-well-worn) | 33.2% | $0.03 | 7.3% | 0 | 96.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-well-worn) | 31.9% | $0.03 | 6.8% | 0 | 92.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 21.9% | $0.02 | 3.2% | 0 | 63.3 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | \<$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 18.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | \<$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 18.6 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Arekuseika](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Arekuseika) $0.21 $118 560.4x 2026-11-10 11:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.21 $118 559.9x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.21 $118 559.9x 2026-11-10 13:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [benimaru.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/benimaru.) $0.21 $118 559.6x 2026-11-10 14:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [benimaru.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/benimaru.) $0.21 $118 559.6x 2026-11-10 14:31 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [ℋℴℳℯℛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%84%8B%E2%84%B4%E2%84%B3%E2%84%AF%E2%84%9B) $0.21 $118 559.6x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Arekuseika](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Arekuseika) $0.21 $117 558.7x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Renshy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Renshy) $0.21 $117 558.2x 2026-11-10 16:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Arekuseika](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Arekuseika) $0.21 $117 558.2x 2026-11-10 16:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [ℋℴℳℯℛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%84%8B%E2%84%B4%E2%84%B3%E2%84%AF%E2%84%9B) $0.21 $117 558.0x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=neonrider)

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Respect´](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Respect%C2%B4) $0.21 $113 539.6x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Толкуйдаа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B0) $0.21 $114 542.5x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [PROTEST](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROTEST) $0.21 $114 541.9x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.21 $114 541.7x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [\_Olumsuz\_🖕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Olumsuz_%F0%9F%96%95) $0.21 $114 541.7x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [gladiolus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gladiolus) $0.21 $114 541.7x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [PROTEST](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROTEST) $0.21 $114 541.7x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [ELISTINSKYI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ELISTINSKYI) $0.21 $114 541.7x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Толкуйдаа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B0) $0.21 $117 557.4x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [ℋℴℳℯℛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%84%8B%E2%84%B4%E2%84%B3%E2%84%AF%E2%84%9B) $0.21 $117 557.4x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 65.34% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 65.12% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 64.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 64.96% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 65.22% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 65.37% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.43% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.44% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 65.92% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 65.90% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 65.90% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.97% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.91% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.98% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 66.27% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 66.30% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.15% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.03% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 66.03% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% Common 39.6% #b0c3d9 38.4% consumer 21.9% best hit $118 (560.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.34 on average: an expected loss of $34.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt