---
title: "Ninja case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ninja ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.35% from 33 items with odds, observed 80.26% over 552 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Ninja](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Ninja

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 76.35% · EV $8.39 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.26% · 552 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79 openings · below min

7 days · 78.66% ±6.57 430 openings

30 days · 80.26% ±5.86 552 openings

since tracking started · 80.26% ±5.86 552 openings

55.5% 71.5% 87.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=24h) | 79 | 71.31% ±15.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=7d) | 430 | 78.66% ±6.57 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase) | 552 | 80.26% ±5.86 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ninjacase?window=all) | 552 | 80.26% ±5.86 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 552 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 107,835 | $348 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 107,727 | $348 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 32,955 | $192 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20,344 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 8,916 | $119 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,530 | $117 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,893 | $114 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,502 | $112 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,984 | $96.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,697 | $87.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 2,764 | $79.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,981 | $70.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,687 | $66.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,605 | $65.84 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $51.34 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $42.21 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.38× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 405 | $41.07 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 378 | $40.08 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $39.78 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 353 | $39.13 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 295 | $36.79 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $31.94 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $31.37 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $23.16 | 3.4% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.48× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.22 | 4.6% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $12.26 | 8.3% | 33 | 31.5 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $11.92 | 8.6% | 41 | 33.3 | 1.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $11.85 | 8.6% | 31 | 33.7 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $9.89 | 10.1% | 52 | 47.1 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 15.1% | $6.37 | 11.5% | 11 | 83.3 | 0.13× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 15.5% | $6.15 | 11.4% | 76 | 85.7 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 18.3% | $4.15 | 9.1% | 74 | 101.2 | 0.73× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 18.3% | $4.11 | 9.0% | 115 | 101.3 | 1.14× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=ninjacase)

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [animeerulit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/animeerulit) $10.99 $41.14 3.74x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $10.99 $4.11 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [D4RK☽](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D4RK%E2%98%BD) $10.99 $6.17 0.56x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/...) $10.99 $4.05 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) [...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/...) $10.99 $23.18 2.11x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $10.99 $4.09 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [LEGBA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LEGBA) $10.99 $4.11 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $10.99 $4.11 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [HyKAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HyKAC) $10.99 $6.15 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [я акула, i che?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%8F%20%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0%2C%20i%20che%3F) $10.99 $4.11 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.35% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.98% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.98% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 76.27% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 76.65% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 76.70% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 77.15% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 77.12% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 77.10% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 77.14% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 77.13% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 77.14% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.16% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.11% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.13% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.14% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.15% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 77.07% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 77.18% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 77.53% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 77.55% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 77.47% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 77.14% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 77.24% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 77.21% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 77.26% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% restricted 1.2% sunny 0.0% covert 1.6% extraordinary 0.3% Covert 0.1% classified 17.2% Ancient 0.5% #d32ee6 11.7% pink 30.6% Legendary 36.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.35 on average: an expected loss of $23.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt