--- title: "Укус Носферату case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Укус Носферату ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.89% from 28 items with odds, observed 76.94% over 12.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Укус Носферату](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Укус Носферату A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=all) Price · $13.99 Advertised RTP · 73.89% · EV $10.34 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.94% · 12.2K openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.92% ±4.09 1,234 openings 7 days · 76.99% ±1.44 10.6K openings 30 days · 76.94% ±1.34 12.2K openings since tracking started · 76.94% ±1.34 12.2K openings 68.0% 73.5% 79.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.82% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.59% – 78.28%, 12,202 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=24h) | 1,234 | 72.92% ±4.09 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=7d) | 10.6K | 76.99% ±1.44 | +3.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite) | 12.2K | 76.94% ±1.34 | +3.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nosferatusbite?window=all) | 12.2K | 76.94% ±1.34 | +3.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 9,718 | $439 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 9,697 | $429 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 8,923 | $273 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,846 | $208 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.29× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,159 | $184 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 6,679 | $170 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,028 | $135 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.06× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 2,992 | $101 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 2,895 | $99.71 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,848 | $98.94 | 0.3% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.87× | | [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 2,043 | $85.35 | 0.4% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× | | [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 1,494 | $75.08 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 866 | $60.93 | 0.7% | 17 | 14.1 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 451 | $47.99 | 1.0% | 36 | 27.0 | 1.33× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 240 | $38.24 | 1.5% | 65 | 50.8 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $34.37 | 1.9% | 48 | 68.2 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $24.07 | 3.4% | 161 | 178.0 | 0.90× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $19.63 | 4.6% | 263 | 297.8 | 0.88× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $17.39 | 5.5% | 403 | 398.1 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $14.72 | 6.7% | 620 | 576.9 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $12.25 | 8.1% | 754 | 831.2 | 0.91× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.94 | 8.2% | 789 | 870.5 | 0.91× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.32 | 8.6% | 690 | 956.6 | 0.72× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $11.24 | 8.6% | 1,022 | 968.7 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $9.91 | 9.3% | 1,094 | 1182.2 | 0.93× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 15.2% | $6.49 | 9.5% | 1,706 | 1851.8 | 0.92× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 15.7% | $6.09 | 9.3% | 1,745 | 1921.2 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 16.2% | $5.74 | 9.0% | 1,831 | 1974.6 | 0.93× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=nosferatusbite) [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [Mersedes-Benz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mersedes-Benz) $13.99 $6.06 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $6.47 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $10.98 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $6.47 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $10.03 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $6.06 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $5.74 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $17.26 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $5.74 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) [BroUgi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BroUgi) $13.99 $14.87 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.89% | 28 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.70% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.98% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.34% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.79% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.77% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.14% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.89% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 22.3% covert 0.7% extraordinary 0.0% Immortal 0.0% red 0.1% classified 29.9% Legendary 10.3% Classified 4.7% violet 15.7% #d32ee6 16.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.89 on average: an expected loss of $26.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt