---
title: "Nuke case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nuke ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.41% from 9 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Nuke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Nuke

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 75.41% · EV $8.29 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nuke?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $48.83 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $36.51 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $31.03 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 16.5% | $11.98 | 23.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 19.4% | $10.19 | 23.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 22.4% | $7.91 | 21.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 12.4% | $2.09 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 12.2% | $2.05 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 11.9% | $2.00 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=nuke)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 75.41% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.23% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.04% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.32% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.66% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.64% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.69% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.76% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.22% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.12% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.23% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.51% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.26% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #8847ff 0.8% Mythical 1.7% mil spec 2.6% industrial 58.3% consumer 24.7% Consumer Grade 11.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.41 on average: an expected loss of $24.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt