---
title: "CS2 Nuke case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CS2 Nuke ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.57% from 36 items with odds, observed 50.30% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Nuke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Nuke

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.57% · EV $0.51 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 50.30% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 114.8% 230.0%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=7d) | 1 | 50.30% ±179.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2) | 1 | 50.30% ±179.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/nukecs2?window=all) | 1 | 50.30% ±179.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 197,929 | $108 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 197,487 | $101 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 190,108 | $63.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173,977 | $44.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 137,411 | $30.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 132,334 | $29.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 68,357 | $18.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 46,935 | $15.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,838 | $12.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 24,405 | $12.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 19,375 | $11.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 13,807 | $9.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 8,718 | $8.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,029 | $6.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,509 | $6.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 2,781 | $5.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 1,117 | $4.15 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 986 | $3.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 755 | $3.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 724 | $3.58 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 474 | $3.09 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 464 | $3.06 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $2.69 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $1.87 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $1.71 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.90 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.84 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.66 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.53 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $0.44 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 11.4% | $0.41 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $0.36 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.36 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.35 | 8.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.11 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=nukecs2)

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [kenT777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kenT777) $0.67 $0.34 0.50x 2026-11-09 09:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.57% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.36% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.45% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.71% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.06% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.13% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.21% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.18% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.23% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.49% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.57% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.76% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.77% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.05% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 76.93% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.93% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.78% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.87% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 1.0% restricted 1.6% #d32ee6 0.0% Legendary 0.4% pink 0.2% #8847ff 16.5% #4b69ff 5.2% Rare 12.1% violet 21.7% milspec 17.9% mil spec 23.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.57 on average: an expected loss of $24.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt