---
title: "Октоберфест case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Октоберфест ($4.29) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.14% from 30 items with odds, observed 73.86% over 866 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Октоберфест](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Октоберфест

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=all)

Price · $4.29

Advertised RTP · 76.14% · EV $3.27 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.86% · 866 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 32 openings · below min

7 days · 75.37% ±5.92 711 openings

30 days · 73.86% ±5.36 866 openings

since tracking started · 73.86% ±5.36 866 openings

46.0% 74.5% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=24h) | 32 | 74.42% ±27.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=7d) | 711 | 75.37% ±5.92 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest) | 866 | 73.86% ±5.36 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/oktoberfest?window=all) | 866 | 73.86% ±5.36 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 873 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 9,727 | $148 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 9,426 | $115 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 8,866 | $89.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 8,228 | $75.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,179 | $61.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 6,210 | $53.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 3,728 | $37.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 2,796 | $32.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 2,348 | $30.24 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 753 | $19.26 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 462 | $16.09 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $13.61 | 1.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $13.35 | 1.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $12.53 | 1.6% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $9.69 | 2.5% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9.13 | 2.8% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $8.94 | 2.9% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $8.44 | 3.2% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $7.72 | 3.6% | 12 | 13.4 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 50 | $6.95 | 4.2% | 15 | 17.3 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $5.36 | 5.8% | 35 | 31.0 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.15 | 7.3% | 52 | 50.2 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.06 | 7.4% | 51 | 52.0 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.20 | 8.2% | 86 | 72.8 | 1.18× |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 11 | $2.90 | 8.3% | 87 | 81.2 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 10.2% | $2.61 | 8.1% | 39 | 88.8 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 11.8% | $1.95 | 7.0% | 119 | 102.8 | 1.16× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 11.9% | $1.80 | 6.6% | 43 | 104.2 | 0.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $1.79 | 6.5% | 126 | 104.2 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.66 | 6.1% | 126 | 104.5 | 1.21× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=oktoberfest)

[P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $4.29 $4.99 1.16x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $4.29 $1.98 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [static-ptz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/static-ptz) $4.29 $1.93 0.45x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $4.29 $1.83 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Charm | Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) [Dar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Dar) $4.29 $2.86 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [Хакер в реках](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A5%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%B2%20%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%85) $4.29 $1.58 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%99%A1) $4.29 $1.81 0.42x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $4.29 $1.80 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[Charm | Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) [†\_Relax Take It Easy\_†](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0_Relax%20Take%20It%20Easy_%E2%80%A0) $4.29 $2.89 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $4.29 $1.77 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.29 | 76.14% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.29 | 75.95% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.29 | 75.77% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.29 | 75.76% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.29 | 76.09% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.29 | 76.43% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.29 | 76.37% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.29 | 76.35% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.29 | 76.46% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.29 | 76.51% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.29 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.29 | 76.93% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.29 | 76.92% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.29 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.29 | 76.96% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.29 | 76.91% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.98% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.92% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.93% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.98% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.96% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.29 | 76.87% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.29 | 76.98% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.29 | 77.36% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.29 | 77.31% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.29 | 77.27% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.29 | 76.94% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.29 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.29 | 77.02% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.29 | 77.02% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 0.0% red 0.0% classified 17.8% mil spec 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.3% rare 2.3% #d32ee6 1.2% violet 25.4% pink 3.6% Legendary 15.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.2% Mythical 23.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.14 on average: an expected loss of $23.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt